Manchester United could be left facing an early exit from the Champions League after this week's tough home game against Villarreal, who have a good chance of getting the point they need to stay on course to qualify from group D.
This has become the group of death, with the four teams separated by just two points - Villarreal are top on six points, with United a point behind but only third.
United have been unimpressive in their previous home games, sneaking past Benfica 2-1 before a disappointing 0-0 with Lille, and Villarreal pose the biggest attacking threat of any in the group, even though they don't have a great away record. Argentine wizard Juan Roman Riquelme is a very difficult player to pick up in the hole, and the stats suggest that the Spanish side can cause United real problems.
In the past five seasons, United have won just over half of their Champions League home games (eight out of 15) against teams from Spain, Italy, Germany and France. Only four of those wins were by more than a single goal. That makes United a poor bet at short odds-on, and Villarreal are favoured on the handicap.
Betis also look a decent handicap bet at Liverpool. A draw probably won't be enough for the Spanish side, but victory would give them a great chance of taking one of the top two spots in group G, and they have a chance against low-scoring Liverpool. Betis haven't been in great form domestically, but did beat Chelsea 1-0.
Two other handicap bets are worth considering. Bremen need to get something in Barcelona and could manage it, with the hosts needing only a point to win group C. A draw at Real Madrid would assure Lyon of top spot in group F, and the French champions will fancy their chances.