Populist who never ducks the unpopular causes

John Howard might want to reflect on history this weekend as he walks the streets of Valletta, the historic capital of Malta and the venue for the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting. The tiny Mediterranean island famously endured months of bombardment by German and Italian forces in 1942. Half starved and almost bombed into submission, the Maltese stood firm and were collectively awarded the St George Cross by Britain in recognition of their bravery. At home, the 66-year-old Australian prime minister may not yet be under siege, but he is certainly copping a lot of flak. The industrial relations reform package his government is pushing has unleashed an unprecedented wave of anger, with surveys showing 60 per cent of the electorate opposes it. The reforms will exempt small businesses from unfair-dismissal legislation, curb union power, and encourage workers to sign individual contracts. Many Australians are profoundly suspicious of the new laws, fearing they will strip them of their rights in the workplace and give too much power to employers. They envisage longer hours with less pay and reduced job security. 'We will end up with an army of working poor, like the US,' said Greg Combet, secretary of the Australian Council of Trade Unions. Bob Hawke, a former Labor prime minister, said the new laws threatened to destroy 'the essence of Australian character - the 'fair go'.' This month, hundreds of thousands of angry Australians rallied in towns and cities around the country to protest against the proposed changes. Churches and charities said the laws would do immense harm to family life - a charge the government dismisses, insisting the new legislation will lead to economic growth, more jobs and better wages. Canberra has spent A$55 million ($314 million) trying to convince a sceptical public in what critics have condemned as 'an outrageous propaganda campaign'. Despite the expense, the campaign is not working - two separate polls released this week put Mr Howard's approval rating at a 41/2-year low, just 13 months after he won a landslide election victory. After nine years in office, the question is now being asked: Could the fallout from changes to industrial relations laws signal the beginning of Howard's end? Robert Manne, professor of politics at La Trobe University in Melbourne, thinks so. He believes the proposed changes pose a 'potentially deadly threat'. But to write off John Winston Howard would be premature. He may look like a cross between a science teacher and a provincial bank manager, but he is one of the most astute politicians of his generation. Since coming to power in 1996, he has shown the same grit as his namesake, British wartime leader Winston Churchill, repeatedly pushing through unpopular legislation which doomsayers said would cost him his job. During his first term in office he responded to a bloody massacre by a lone gunman in Tasmania by tightening gun controls, despite bitter opposition. Mr Howard again risked his political neck two years later, introducing a new goods and services tax which was initially highly unpopular with the electorate. He weathered the storm and predicted that the fuss would soon die down. He was right. His decision to back the US and Britain and contribute 2,000 troops to the invasion of Iraq in early 2003 prompted huge protest rallies, but again, he refused to back down. That controversy has also gone away, largely because Australia has suffered just one combat fatality. Trust was again an issue during the 'Children Overboard' affair, when Mr Howard claimed that a boatload of asylum seekers had thrown their children into the sea to force the government to allow them to land on Australian soil. This was found to be untrue, and there were strong suspicions that he deliberately misled the public. These controversies have done him little harm, and last year, he became Australia's second-longest serving prime minister, after his idol, Sir Robert Menzies, who was in office from 1949 to 1966. 'The key thing to remember is that this is not the first time he has been unpopular in office,' John Stirton, research director of the polling company AC Nielsen, said yesterday. 'You can never write off John Howard.' Few people would have predicted such longevity when Mr Howard first entered politics after graduating in law from Sydney University. He was a bespectacled, somewhat nerdy-looking suburban solicitor in Sydney when he first ran for office, winning the Sydney seat of Bennelong, on the shores of the harbour, in 1974. He rose steadily through the ranks of the conservative Liberal Party, which was then in opposition, and was appointed leader. He lost 1987's federal election to the charismatic former union leader Bob Hawke. A year later, he was dumped as Liberal Party leader and he famously dismissed any comeback. It would be 'like Lazarus with a triple bypass', he said. Derided as dry, dour and humourless, it was the low point of his political career. He was no stranger to unpopularity - as a schoolboy in suburban Sydney he failed even to win enough votes to be elected as a prefect. Years of bitter party infighting produced a string of ineffective successors and Mr Howard was resurrected as leader in 1995, going on to win the 1996 election against Labor prime minister Paul Keating. He underwent something of a makeover, trimming his unruly eyebrows, updating his spectacles and smartening up his wardrobe. A period of unprecedented economic growth in Australia has proved the basis for his enduring popularity and he has been re-elected three times. His ordinariness has counted in his favour - he is the cricket-loving, suburban everyman who effortlessly connects with the hopes, fears and prejudices of the Aussie 'battlers' who elected him. Mr Howard also showed himself to be an astute judge of the national mood after the September 11 attacks in New York. Ensuring Australia's national security has become the second pillar on which his popularity in the polls has been based. The 2002 Bali bombings, a suicide bomb attack on the Australian embassy in Jakarta, and a recent alleged plot by homegrown Islamist militants to blow up a nuclear reactor in Sydney have only deepened Australians' fear and insecurity. Supporters see him as a safe pair of hands in dangerous times. Critics accuse him of shamelessly exploiting the fear of terrorism for political gain. The controversy over the industrial relations reforms should be playing straight into the hands of the opposition Labor Party. Whether its leader, Kim Beazley, can make much political capital out of it remains to be seen, however. Critics say he is bumbling, verbose and ineffective. He was recently characterised as the cartoon character Wile E. Coyote to Mr Howard's Road Runner. 'Each time Mr Beazley secures a sure-fire political weapon, courtesy of Acme Inc, he ends up injuring himself with it, while his nimble-footed opponent proceeds merrily on his way,' an editorial in The Australian newspaper said. A dip in the approval ratings has added to speculation that Mr Howard will step aside next year to make way for his anointed successor, Treasurer Peter Costello. But the prime minister is at the top of his game. A non-smoker and a moderate drinker, he is physically fit and exercises each morning with a dawn walk, no matter where in the world he finds himself. He clearly loves strutting the world stage - in the past week he has been in South Korea for Apec, Afghanistan and Pakistan to push the 'war on terror', and now Malta. He shows no signs of quitting, at least not voluntarily. Mr Howard is calculating that, like the unpopular tax he introduced, gun control and the Iraq war, anger over his industrial relations reforms will abate by the time the next election rolls around in 2007. 'The sky will not fall in, weekend barbecues will not be abolished, parents will still be able to spend Christmas Day with their children,' he said. It is a big gamble, and it won't be clear if it's paid off for another two years. But it is too early to start writing the obituary of this most wily of political operators.