THE long awaited global upturn is not going to happen next year, say two of DKB Asia's top economists, who were in Hong Kong yesterday to speak to DKB clients.
Gerard Lyons, chief economist and divisional director for Europe, predicted only marginal growth in Europe, even in the leading economies of Britain and Italy.
He cited continuing constrictive monetary policies, weakness of demand, cost cutting and a lack of consumer confidence as making for a difficult 1994 for Europe.
He believed that with European countries still committed to anti-inflationary measures, brought about by the Maastricht Treaty, they were in danger of overlooking the threat of unemployment.
''The monetary policy of many countries is still dictated by the Maastricht Treaty, which concentrates on combating inflation, and [countries] have not kept up with economic changes. As a result, policy is now in danger of being superseded,'' Mr Lyons said.
''Inflation is no longer the problem, the threat is from unemployment.'' Mr Lyons doubted that European monetary union would even begin to happen before 1995.
