PATIENTS will be over-treated and standards of medical care will drop if the Government does not act to prevent a surplus of doctors in the next few years, according to the Hong Kong Medical Association (HKMA).
HKMA vice-president Dr Lee Kin-hung said that if present trends of supply and demand continued there would be too many doctors.
''The Government should bring all concerned parties together to form an accurate picture of future demand and supply and agree on limiting the number of medical students if necessary,'' Dr Lee said.
''There is likely to be some conflict here, and I would not expect an easy consensus, but if all concerned can agree to act together there is some chance that the over-supply of doctors could be avoided.'' Latest figures show that there are nearly 7,000 registered medical doctors in Hong Kong, with one doctor to about 850 people - an increase of 12.4 per cent in just three years.
Hong Kong University and the Chinese University produce 300 to 340 medical graduates each year, while a licentiate examination will soon be open to medical graduates worldwide.
The Hospital Authority, the major employer of public doctors in Hong Kong, generates about 75 new posts each year, but this year only five per cent of doctors have resigned, compared to eight per cent last year.
The Hong Kong Public Doctors' Association (HKPDA) claimed that in eight years' time the number of doctors would have increased by 50 per cent while the population would not have risen by anywhere near that much.