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Myanmar's ethnic conundrum

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In Myanmar, March 2 resonates down the years as the day on which, in 1962, a military coup overthrew the democracy created at independence from Britain in 1948. That established the army as the arbiter of the people's fate. Today, on the eve of the bleak 44th anniversary of that event, a military junta continues to hold sway over the country's 55 million citizens.

In almost every domain, the governance record of the world's longest-running military dictatorship is abysmal. Myanmar currently finds itself near the bottom of all the best international league tables, and near the top of all the worst. A feeble economy and zero transparency keep company with endemic corruption, booming narcotics industries and repression.

Military dictatorship has been particularly catastrophic for the many ethnic groups that make up roughly one-third of the population.

Minority groups are still subject to forced labour, forced relocation, rape, torture and extrajudicial killing. They have borne the brunt of the army's often violent rule.

The game plan devised by army leaders to manage Myanmar's ethnic conundrum is devastatingly simple. As long ago as the 1950s, military strategists drew parallels with Yugoslavia. As the Balkan wars gathered pace in the 1990s, they reinforced their determination never to allow Myanmar to disintegrate. Relentlessly, the junta stresses national unity in a Myanmar context.

The brutality of ethnic repression is one of the great indictments of army rule. At the same time, however, Myanmar's ethnic conundrum is one of the major reasons why neighbouring Asian countries continue to offer reluctant support to the junta. The last thing leaders in Bangkok, Beijing and New Delhi want is ethnic warfare on their long Myanmar borders.

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