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Lawrence  Chung

But a 'fourth communique' seems unlikely

A nervous Taiwan is watching closely to see whether next week's summit between President Hu Jintao and his US counterpart, George W. Bush, will affect  the island's sovereign interests.

But most Taiwanese analysts said it was unlikely Washington could sign a 'fourth communique' with Beijing to assert the mainland's superiority over Taiwan, given that the island still had a great deal of strategic value for the US in its dealings with the mainland.

They said they expected trade  would be the main focus of the Bush-Hu talks.

'The Taiwan issue is definitely one of the agenda items for the upcoming talks between Bush and Hu, and the political tempest triggered by [Taiwan President] Chen Shui-bian  is not entirely over,' said Edward Chen I-hsin,  from the American Studies Institute at Tamkang University.

President Chen's announcement in late February that he was terminating the National Unification Council infuriated the mainland and displeased the US.

Although the  controversy has quietened down, with the US insisting the council still exists even though it is not functioning at the moment, Professor Chen said Beijing would not let the island's leader escape so easily.

But it was doubtful it would be able to persuade the US to agree to tougher punishment, such as signing a 'fourth communique'.

'Nor is it likely that President Bush will rap Taiwan in front of Hu Jintao, as he did in his meeting with [mainland Premier] Wen Jiabao in 2003,' said George Tsai, a research fellow at the Institute of International Relations at National Chengchi University.

The US has signed three communiques with the mainland, pledging its support of Beijing's one-China policy and opposing Taiwanese independence.

In 2003, an angry Mr Bush criticised Mr Chen in front of Mr Wen after the Taiwanese leader insisted on holding a referendum which Beijing saw as an attempt to promote Taiwanese independence.

'Bush is likely to reiterate the US position of supporting the one-China policy and maintaining the cross-strait status quo, though the mainland obviously may want something more concrete than that from the US,' Professor Tsai said.

He said a mild reaction from the US did not mean Washington supported the actions of the island's independence-leaning president.

'The US is just watching out for Taiwan's strategic interests to get a bigger bargaining position in dealing with the mainland,' Professor Tsai said.

Analysts agreed that the mainland's trade surplus with the US, which topped US$200 billion last year, would be the main topic in the Bush-Hu talks.

'The trade issue will be much higher up in the Bush-Hu talks,' said Andrew Yang Nien-dzu,  secretary-general of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies, adding that the bilateral trade tension had been the main motivation behind mainland Vice-Premier Wu Yi's 'buy American' mission, which has sealed deals for more than US$16 billion worth of US products.

Professor Chen said the US was likely to use the Taiwan issue as a tool to gain bigger trade concessions from the mainland.

Meanwhile, David Lee Ta-wei, the Taiwanese representative in Washington, said his office had kept in close contact with the US government and was expressing the island's concerns over Mr Hu's visit, according to the government-funded Central News Agency.

Mr Lee said his office had done all it could to prevent any possible harm to Taiwan's interests.



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Hu Jintao

Taiwan watches from sidelines for any policy shift