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SCMP Reporter

ON a day when the stock market went through the roof, it fell to the shiny-headed Mark Mobius of Templeton to offer the following prediction at yesterday's bond conference at the Grand Hyatt.

''The good news is the Hang Seng Index is going to 14,000,'' he said, at which point the audience started laughing.

''The Taiwan stock market is going to go back to 12,000 and China is going to go through the roof,'' he continued.

''The bad news is I do not know when this is going to happen. Even worse, nor can I predict the crashes that will intervene on the way.'' As a sign that common sense has finally packed its suitcase and left the Hong Kong market for a long holiday, he relayed the following conversation when a broker had rung to pressure him into taking a new issue.

''Let me know some details first. Tell me about it,'' Mark said.

''No. I won't tell you about it unless you are interested,'' was the reply.

Mark asked for the issue documentation, but was told it wasn't ready.

''Well okay, let's talk about it, then give me some time to think,'' he said.

The broker fired back: ''You can't have time. It closes in two hours.'' ''What do you mean? What is the name of the company issuing?'' asked Mark.

''I don't know . . . Look, it was good calling you . . . it's all sold anyway,'' said the broker, and hung up.

  Identity parade . . . ''Can people who want to send me a Season's Greetings please write their name clearly, or otherwise don't bother,'' says Inchcape's Dirk Rossey, who got sent the sample above.

   ''Scribbles like the one enclosed do not give me the impression that sincerity is implied with the greeting.''   If that squiggle adorning the card is his boss's signature, he'll have some fast talking to do this morning.

  He adds: ''I would like to use this opportunity to wish all my friends and my business relations the best for this wonderful year ahead.'' Looks like he's economising on cards this year.

  If you fancy some traditional Christmas cheer, head up to University station on the KCR. Yesterday morning, they were playing All I want for Christmas is me two front teef over the public address system.

   Bond age  AT the same conference, a promotion for rating agencies from Citicorp's Joseph Connolly.

  Rating agencies: the thugs who downgrade bonds the day after you have bought them.

  Meanwhile, Sino Land's Robert Ng offered this:   What's the difference between a bond and a bond trader? Answer: a bond eventually matures.

   Chain soars  AN amazing chain letter was posted to us yesterday, which fully proves how much superstition there is in boardrooms - and elsewhere.

  The top name on the list on December 7, 1992, was Sir Ian Maclaurin, chairman of the giant British store group Tesco, and it has passed through 37 pairs of hands since.

  David Jones of clothing group Next had it about a month later; a director of the Royal Bank of Scotland had it in February this year; and after a trip up to Scotland it crossed to Hong Kong via a firm of engineering consultants in March.

  It went through the hands of a few medical people, then through the Ocean Palace Restaurant and Nightclub in Tsim Sha Tsui, and then took a trip into the entertainment industry.

  Teresa Norton, previously of FM Select, and promoter Anders Nelsson passed it on, as did Romeo Diaz, who echoed the words of many, saying: ''I am also not superstitious but then again, so are most of the people who sent this letter, and like them I'm notprepared to risk it, so please bear with me.''   Michael Hosking, who runs a local pop company called Midas Promotions, sent it to Paula Abdul, Bryan Adams, Jon Bon Jovi and Richard Branson, as well as Hong Kong's Todd Kraus.

  After a few more pairs of hands, it went back into the world of business with Silver Eagle's Robert Christie, Simon Walker of Johnson Stokes and Master, Lane Crawford's Sarah Rutson, followed by others.

  The original letter told its recipient to send out four copies or risk bad luck. If everyone has complied, the number of active letters should now be seven followed by 22 zeroes.

  Unchained  THESE giant chain letters thrive because people are afraid to break the chain.

   If you want to do your bit for the rainforests but don't want the bad luck, then post - not fax, repeat NOT fax - it to us, and we'll put it where it belongs.

   Bar tender  DAVID Davies, chairman of First Pacific Davies, is inviting business associates to his tent at the rugby event his company is sponsoring this weekend at Stanley Fort.

  The invite says dress should be ''very, very casual''.

  Derek's getting more casual himself. The number given for replies turns out to be the bar at the China Club. Is this where he's spending his office hours?   Boeing down  CATHAY Pacific applied some reverse thrust yesterday, changing its longstanding policy of buying aircraft from Boeing, and instead ordering a load of Airbus A340s.

  Cathay's love of Boeing had previously been so great that all its phone numbers start with 747.

   If it wants to change to 340, it might have to shift its headquarters to Tsim Sha Tsui or Mongkok.

  Off-putting  THE mainlanders who have taken over at Shanghai International, formerly Ong Holdings, are obviously keen to swing their clubs.

  In their annual report issued yesterday they have decided to give the cost of various ''memberships''.

  Their seat at the futures exchange cost a nominal $2; their seat at the stock exchange cost $100,000; and their newly purchased membership of the Clearwater Bay Golf and Country Club cost $1.6 million.



Doubting Mark misses the big one