This summer, thousands of villagers in China's once impoverished countryside are in a celebratory mood as they purchase their first air conditioners. But Beijing's top energy sector officials and industry leaders fear that their predictions of the country's power consumption patterns may be way off, due to the emerging wave of consumerism.
'The problem is that these rural families can [now] afford such luxury goods, and it is difficult to ask them to keep their air conditioners switched off,' said Wang Yonggan , secretary-general of the China Electricity Council, the state-sanctioned industry association for the power sector.
More affluent urban areas have borne witness to the prevalence of power-hungry air conditioners, which account for 40 per cent of electricity consumption during peak periods, and 15 per cent throughout the year. That's why last summer, department stores in the city of Nanchang , Jiangxi province , had to stop deliveries of all air conditioners to customers outside city boundaries during the hottest days. Authorities believed the electricity transmission infrastructure might collapse due to the surging demand for power.
This leap in the demand for air conditioners in rural areas illustrates the many uncertainties facing China's electricity supply industry. Contrary to popular belief - that energy shortages would end by 2008 and the country's industries could then consume reliable electricity in a happily-ever-after scenario - some of Beijing's top technocrats are worried that balancing power supply and demand is more complicated than they imagined.
While the supply of electricity was a matter of building new capacity, the demand side was more difficult to predict or control, admitted Mr Wang.
'As China grows richer, our greater appetite for consumer goods means more electricity must be used for manufacturing,' he said.