The outlook for Hong Kong's economy is likely to stay healthy as it rides on the coattails of the mainland's robust growth, credit insurer Coface said. However, recent measures by Beijing to cool the mainland economy could result in increased credit risk and pressure on corporate margins, dampening regional and international trade, the Hong Kong branch of the French company said. Yves Zlotowski, Coface's country risk expert, said some sectors of the mainland market, such as the mobile phone and home appliances industries, were experiencing tighter margins due to price wars and higher oil prices. He also noted that mainland efforts to rein in its impressive economic growth posed a risk to worldwide trade. Despite the warning, Richard Burton, Coface's regional managing director for greater China, remained upbeat about Hong Kong's prospects. 'There are several positive indicators. For example, after the inception of the QDII [qualified domestic institutional investors] programme, Hong Kong's much-celebrated ties to the mainland will ensure it benefits from cash inflows, expanding the capacity of its markets,' Mr Burton said. Healthy growth in the real estate market, a relatively low unemployment rate of 5.1 per cent and a continued drop in late and default payments as reported by Hong Kong buyers all point to a rosy outlook, he said. Hong Kong's economic growth jumped by a stronger-than-expected 8.2 per cent in the first quarter, spurring upwards revisions in full-year estimates. The official forecast remains at between 4 per cent and 5 per cent although experts generally expect full-year growth to be around 6 per cent.
