Beijing's recent crackdown on the soaring property market has been greeted with widespread scepticism. Property stocks, for one, have rallied since the announcement - in the belief that the government is merely trying to slow price rises rather than prick the bubble. Indeed, some steps - including a ban on new villa construction - are too vague to be effective.
Even the most concrete measure taken - raising the minimum down-payment requirement for large apartments from 20 to 30 per cent - is not all that restrictive: most home buyers have been putting up close to 40 per cent, according to a survey by the People's Bank of China.
The government's stated objective is to rein in investment growth, which is surging ahead at more than 20 per cent per year despite repeated policy tightening. The property sector accounts for over 20 per cent of total investment in China. So, in theory, a significant slowdown in property investment should rein in overall investment. In practice, however, the government is probably paying only lip service to the goal.
There are three possible reasons for this. First, successful overseas listings of large state banks remain a political priority. But a weaker property market would weaken the quality of banks' assets - undermining their listing prospects, in turn.
Second, a cooling property market would also cool the labour market, particularly the construction sector's demand for migrant workers. This is clearly something neither Beijing nor local governments want to see.
Finally, developers, banks, local governments and even the general public do not believe the central government wants to see a genuine economic slowdown so close to the 17th Communist Party Congress in October next year. It will see the country's top leaders engaging in delicate political manoeuvrings.
Why, then, did the central government bother to unveil the latest package? The short answer is that property valuation in most cities has got out of hand. The People's Bank of China aimed its interest rate rise of 27 basis points, in April, chiefly at property speculators.