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754 days to go

To stand in the shadow of the incredible Bird's Nest Olympic Stadium and gape in awe makes one wonder if this will rival the Great Wall and the Forbidden City as a prime tourist site post-2008.

'Staggering' is the only adjective that describes this wonder of modern architecture - a super structure that is only two-thirds built but bellows new China's ambition and vision from the city's dusty rooftops.

And you easily forget the statistics trotted out by obsessive chief engineers: 'a 1,000 welders this' and '2,000 workers that'; 'all construction is above expectations of the scientific management plan' ... etc, etc, etc.

Just one look and you'll be convinced where and what China wants to be.

So in 2009, when things get back to normal and China can focus - without any sporting distractions - entirely on being the world's next superpower, the Beijing Tourism Bureau may want to relegate the Great Wall and Forbidden City from the top of the must-see sites and promote the Bird's Nest and Water Cube.

Any tourist's holiday album will not be complete without a Kodak moment of the stadiums of the historic 2008 Olympic Games.

But wait ... staging the Olympics might be bad for Beijing's tourism industry, a new report claims.

The European Tour Operators Association (ETOA) earlier this week released a study that shows Olympic host cities suffer a drop in tourism growth in the years before and after the event.

The survey also takes a swipe at the International Olympic Committee's claim that a host city's media exposure during the games boosts tourism in the long term.

Comparing Seoul, Barcelona, Atlanta and Sydney, the ETOA report shows visitor arrivals declined before the games, followed by a damaging trough for some time afterwards.

Tom Jenkins, executive director of London-based ETOA, claims that while the Olympics are appealing to travelling sports fans, they are a massive turn-off for regular holiday-makers.

'These findings may seem surprising because during the games the city's hotels are full,' said Jenkins. 'But the presence of the Olympics deters regular tourists.

'They perceive that the city will be full, disrupted, congested and over-priced. A reduction in the number of regular tourists halts the conveyor belt of satisfied customers bringing more visitors. The 'word of mouth' falls silent.'

Jenkins also accuses sporting organisers of exaggerating audience figures.

'They [the IOC] make mad claims based on aspirations. Their 3.9 billion figure is a 'reach' - all the people in the world who could possibly watch the Olympics if they could get to a TV,' added Jenkins.

'The Olympic Games do not turn tourists into sports fans or sports fans into tourists,' he warned.

'It is possible that Beijing may not suffer. It is not an alpha tourism destination and does not have a big 'normal' tourism flow to be disrupted. It is also a one-party state - and they tend to organise these things quite well. They are great at filling stadiums,' he said.

Beijing Tourism Bureau marketing officer Gao Fu rejects claims tourism will nosedive post 2008. He says the capital has promotional campaigns planned to ensure visitor numbers continue to grow before, during and after the games.

'We are quite confident tourism will be enhanced. We have promotional plans for after the games. Personally speaking, I think the 2008 Games will be a huge success as far as tourism goes,' he said.

Gary Bowerman, editor of the Shanghai Business Review, says the ETOA report highlights the need for host cities to have an integrated, long-term tourism plan for the Olympics. 'But the games should not drive such a plan. It's not a case of 'host the Olympics and they will come'.

'World tourism has become too sophisticated and diverse for that. There are too many new destinations competing for tourists and multiple options for accessing them,' Bowerman said.

However, the Beijing Games are coming at a time of intense global interest in China and its rise economically, he claims, adding: 'The games will, I am sure, do wonders for domestic tourism, but international tourism growth is by no means guaranteed after the games - certainly no more so than would be expected at this current time when tourism arrivals in China are rising year on year anyway.'

Latest figures from the Beijing Statistical Information Bureau show a record 16,650,000 domestic and international tourists have visited the capital since January this year - up more than 26 per cent on the same period last year.

The Grand Hyatt's director of sales, George Chang, dismissed the ETOA findings, saying: 'The games certainly put the country on the international stage.

'We foresee aggressive growth for the next few years and steady growth for the years beyond 2008. Thus, with the increase in business we see more opportunities in tourism - both leisure and business travel - in the upcoming years.'

But it is not the case of people sitting down and watching sporting events on TV and then promptly getting up and going to China, argues Jenkins.

He admits the Olympics are 'overwhelmingly' a great sporting party.

'But most of the visitors are officials, athletes and journalists. Travelling sports fans are few.

'However, if you love sport - particularly if you love the minority sports featured - then they are a wonderful occasion,' he added.

'But that is it. After they are over, they are over. Sweep up, pay the bills and move on. Stop looking for benefits. There aren't any.'

Well, there is one at least. The Bird's Nest.

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