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Chen Shui-bian: a leader under siege

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The administration of Taiwan's president, Chen Shui-bian, now appears to be in permanent crisis mode. Mr Chen, a political fighter if nothing else, survived a recall attempt in June. That came after Taiwanese politics was rocked by allegations of insider stock trading against his son-in-law and misuse of department store gift vouchers by his wife.

Since those days of crisis in June, things have become only worse for Mr Chen. A group of academics and public intellectuals loosely associated with his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has called for him to step down, and opposition lawmakers have been able to flood the media with new allegations of financial irregularities. While no single allegation has demonstrated outright corruption by the president, taken as a whole, they strongly suggest a deeply rooted culture of incompetence and bad management within his administration.

That impression was reinforced this week when the minister of transportation, Kuo Yao-chi, suddenly resigned. That came after a court ruled against the government for awarding a company close to Mr Chen a fat contract to build and operate a highway toll-collection system.

With his grasp on power shakier than ever, Mr Chen's greatest vulnerability is a possible challenge from within his DPP that would force him to resign for the good of the party. There is growing sentiment, especially at the local level, that if Mr Chen does not quit soon, the party will be severely weakened for years to come.

When Mr Chen was elected in 2000 to end more than 50 years of Kuomintang rule, voters expected him to introduce radical reforms. The public may understand intellectually that Mr Chen has not had enough votes in Taiwan's parliament to push his reforms through. But it is still deeply disappointed that the 'Son of Taiwan' - as Mr Chen was known in better days - has failed to deliver.

Under Mr Chen, the DPP has frittered away its political capital as the party of reform, and increasingly appears even to the faithful to be controlled from the top by a cadre of Chen loyalists. Yet, despite the public's deep disappointment with Mr Chen, there is no broad sentiment that he should step down immediately. Other than the vocal opposition media, most Taiwanese seem to think that the last thing Taiwan and its fragile economy need is a mass, people-power type of movement to force Mr Chen out of office before his term expires in 2008.

In the interim, Mr Chen - constitutionally barred from seeking a third term - looks set to be a caretaker president. On domestic issues, he has ceded much of his power to the premier, Su Tseng-chang. Mr Su is using his new authority to build up the patronage networks he will need to run for president in 2008.

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