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Once more into the breach

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If the generals stick to their promises, Thais will be queuing at polling stations next October to cast votes in a general election under a new constitution. Hopes are high for a new era of clean politics.

Alas, such hopes will almost certainly be dashed. For one thing, voters will more than likely be choosing from a reshuffled political pack, shorn of a few jokers, but mostly the same faces - many wearing new party suits.

The junta's interim government may break up the largest political parties and banish dozens of leading players from politics. But these players' local pull, wealth and connections will see to it that their relatives and friends fill seats in parliament.

For another, other tycoons show little enthusiasm for the front line of politics, unlike deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. His wealth built Thai Rak Thai, which formed Thailand's first single-party government. His controversial and bossy reign ended with a coup last month. Mr Thaksin might one day stage a comeback: he is only 57, wealthy and retains an aura of success - a big draw for Thais. But it won't be at the next election: the generals will see to that.

Instead, half a dozen parties will fill the arena - some old, some new - and build a government by horse-trading. A coalition government seems certain, in a rerun of the 1990s - which was marked by revolving-door governments, policy see-saws and, yes, plenty of corruption.

Thais were optimistic that the 16th constitution - widely praised locally and abroad after promulgation in 1997 - would tame politicians' greed, put wrongdoers in jail and deliver stable government. Now many democracy campaigners and academics blame it for allowing Mr Thaksin to run circles around the checks and balances of democracy.

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