Since taking the helm of Tung Chee-hwa's beleaguered administration last year, Donald Tsang Yam-kuen has been careful not to make promises he can't keep. 'To demonstrate that we are a credible, pragmatic and accountable administration, I will only include in this policy address those measures and policies that are capable of implementation within the current term of the government,' he said in his first policy address last October. One year on, Mr Tsang is due to report on an array of policies and measures outlined in last year's speech, when he takes the stage to deliver his second policy blueprint in the Legislative Council tomorrow. In line with his 'people-oriented' governance approach, Mr Tsang has held a large number of pre-policy address consultations in recent months - a total of 32 sessions compared with 27 in the run-up to last year's address. Nevertheless, most pundits think it unlikely that tomorrow will bring drastic policy initiatives or bold action plans, with Mr Tsang having nine months left of the current term. Sources close to the Chief Executive's Office have talked down the upcoming policy address in the past few weeks. 'If [Mr Tsang] has some brilliant new ideas, he will keep them for his re-election campaign,' one source said. A member of the Tsang team said: 'It's election year. Next year will also mark the 10th anniversary of the handover. The upcoming policy address will be the best occasion for him to wrap up the past year and focus on ways to create harmony in the lead-up to July 1, for him to pave the way for the next five years thereafter.' Ma Ngok, associate professor with Chinese University's Government and Public Administration Department, said Mr Tsang would be able to give an upbeat assessment of his first year's work by citing data such as robust economic growth and the fall in the unemployment rate to 4.8 per cent, the lowest in five years. 'People should not expect him to say a lot on issues like constitutional reform and economic development,' Professor Ma said. 'He will probably focus a bit more on selective livelihood issues such as environment and pollution caused by electricity firms. 'Given his style, Mr Tsang will argue that he shouldn't make a decision on long-term issues and will leave that to his successor. 'The policy address is always a good occasion for the chief executive to lead public debate on certain issues. I don't think Mr Tsang would like to focus on the goods and services tax consultation, the health-care financing issue or the question of constitutional reform. 'Environment is a hot issue. Other than that, there are other policy issues that Mr Tsang would like to address in more detail in his next policy address.' Opinion polls conducted by various media organisations, political parties and university research institutes show the environment, employment and the economy are among the issues most people deemed as priority tasks. The address comes as union leaders have stepped up pressure on the government to introduce a minimum wage policy to protect the livelihood of low-income earners. Their move follows a high-profile pledge by Mr Tsang during his election campaign and in his last policy address to make livelihood improvements for the city's lowest-paid workers. A high-ranking official, who preferred anonymity, said: 'Mr Tsang has promised to enhance the well-being of people. People are going to ask what happened with their demand for minimum wage protection. He might have gone a bit too far last year with that promise.' Talks in recent months between representatives of employer and worker groups at the Labour Advisory Board reached an impasse, despite intensive government lobbying behind the scenes for a compromise as the policy address drew near. Professor Ma also said there was no sign of any particular crowd-pleasing measure. On the other hand, it looked unlikely Mr Tsang would suffer a big blow to his popularity as a result of tomorrow's policy address, he said. This would only happen if he proposed some unpopular policies, which was not likely. 'He will do a few things in the policy address that will help increase his popularity slightly. Getting a grade B+ will be good enough for him,' Professor Ma said, adding there was no strong incentive for Mr Tsang to act aggressively in a bid to boost his popularity. Despite a slight drop in recent weeks, Mr Tsang has enjoyed a public approval rating averaging above 60 per cent in the past year. Public support for his second term stands at a similar level, with likely rival, the Civic Party's Alan Leong Kah-kit, trailing well behind. The nomination period for the next chief executive election, scheduled for March, is expected to begin in January. Although Mr Tsang has given no indication of his re-election plans, few doubt that he will run and be re-elected. Executive Council member Anthony Cheung Bing-leung said Mr Tsang would face constraints in his blueprint being released tomorrow. 'He can't go into detail about the next five years. Otherwise, it will become more an election platform than a policy address,' Professor Cheung said. 'The policy address is indeed a good opportunity for him to take stock of the past nine years under 'one country, two systems', for him to pave the way for talking about the future next year. He needs to be cautious, however, as it may become controversial if he's too critical,' he added, referring to the problems of the Tung era. Li Pang-kwong, a political scientist at Lingnan University, said he expected Mr Tsang to talk more about direction and principles, but not specific plans in his policy address. 'The more detailed his policy initiatives are, the more difficult for him to oversee their implementation in the next nine months,' Dr Li said. 'I'm afraid we need to wait until after he's re-elected before we could get a clearer idea of his long-term plans and strategy.' By design or coincidence, Mr Tsang has left decisions on a number of highly contentious issues to the next chief executive. The ongoing GST consultation is scheduled to end by late March. The Commission on Strategic Development is due to complete its reports on universal suffrage by early next year for Mr Tsang to compile a report to the central government. The question of whether to proceed with a proposal to create two more layers of ministers will be a matter for the next chief executive. A timetable for public consultation over health-care financing has not yet been fixed. And even if a go-ahead to legislating on fair competition is given at the end of a consultation later this year, a bill is only likely to be tabled at Legco in the middle of next year. Lo Chi-kin, a political commentator, said Mr Tsang came from the civil service, with its tradition of political pragmatism. Dr Lo said Mr Tsang's recent lengthy address on 'pragmatic politics' was a smart tactic that had struck a chord with mainstream society. 'It's true that people have been asking the government to do a lot of things,' he said. 'Whether they really expect the government to deliver everything is a different matter. What the government needs to do is to manage the public's expectations from a pragmatic approach. When the economy continues to do well, it does not need to do a lot. When it doesn't, it can formulate some measures to reduce the economic pain. 'The last thing it wants is to over-promise but under-deliver ... When the economy continues to grow, government revenue will go up. The government will have more room to spend on services and infrastructure.' Under the present political structure and environment, Dr Lo is adamant the government would have its hands tied if it tried to introduce major policy changes. 'The Tsang administration also appears to have come to grips with people's prevailing mentality that a government that can deliver results is better than one that can only give promises.'
