Oh, there are going to be awesome consequences. The great and mighty Democratic People's Republic of (North) Korea has set off a small, but nonetheless nuclear, underground explosion.
The world's statesmen and official spokespeople are wringing their hands in horror and outrage. 'Immense consequences', we hear. The balance of power in Asia has definitively shifted, we read.
What, we may ask, is the big deal? A country whose pea-sized economy is smaller than that of most US cities, and a small fraction of the South Korean colossus, is threatening Asia? Yet, this crazy and economically pathetic regime is evidently finite, and dependent on the survival of a canny and strategic genius who inherited power from his father - and who, despite his emanations to the contrary, is mortal.
Well, let's look at the real threat. It is that Japan now has an excuse, and will face popular demands, for a resurgent military. That will truly send shudders throughout East and Southeast Asia, even two generations after the second world war. But how big a threat is that?
In the long run, it is inevitable that Japan's military presence will be proportionate to its gigantic economic size. The region should get used to that; it's only a matter of time. The more the world reacts to Pyongyang, the more Tokyo has an excuse to speed things up. The region's interest lies in the slowest possible Japanese resurgence.
In the long run, threats are, after all, governed by economics. You can't fight wars you can't afford, even if you can precipitate them. And there's the rub. Most of the world doesn't want North Korea to precipitate a war. The North would, in the end, lose, but we don't want the horrible consequences for South Korea of a lopsided opening battle: Seoul is close to the demarcation line; Pyongyang far distant. And China doesn't want 5 million refugees on its border - from a new Korean war. The bottom line is this: a war that Kim Jong-il starts will be the end of him, and he knows it.
So, what does Pyongyang want? Steve Bosworth, once the US ambassador in Seoul, says it wants to be noticed, taken into account. Given the idiosyncrasy of its leadership, and as long as that leadership continues its high-wire art of survival, all this is to be expected. And the world is giving Mr Kim just what he hoped for - centre diplomatic stage.