Washington's top envoy to Taiwan warned the island last month that a huge arms package made available by the United States in 2001 might be taken off the table if Taipei continues to procrastinate. Stephen Young, director of the American Institute in Taiwan, urged that the island's legislature approve the budget to buy US weapons by the end of this autumn - to counter China's growing military build-up. For the past five years, the Democratic Progressive Party of President Chen Shui-bian and the opposition-controlled legislature have been deadlocked over the issue. This month, however, the National Defence Committee of the Legislative Yuan finally agreed to allocate NT$37.06 million (HK$8.7 million) for a submarine feasibility study and NT$2.48 million for P-3C maritime patrol aircraft in the government's annual budget proposal for next year. But it blocked NT$4.2 million in 'procurement operation fees' for Patriot PAC-3 anti-missile systems. Still, the US is apparently happy that there is finally movement on the defence budget, even though the package is likely to be severely whittled down. Mr Young's remarks were directed at the opposition Kuomintang even more than at the ruling DPP. The KMT had opposed the arms bill's passage to deprive Mr Chen of any achievement for which he could take credit. In recent months, however, with opinion surveys showing that KMT chairman Ma Ying-jeou will likely win the 2008 presidential election, the KMT has been trying to mend fences with the US. American officials were starting to wonder if the KMT felt it was more important to score political points against the DPP than to ensure that Taiwan strengthened its defences against mainland China. The KMT favours only one of the package's three parts: the P-3C anti-submarine aircraft. It is doubtful about both the cost and the value of the eight diesel submarines proposed, and it argues that the PAC-3 missiles were vetoed in a 2004 referendum. The submarine proposal is probably dead. Not only are the subs enormously expensive, but the US no longer makes diesel submarines, and no European country has agreed to produce them for Taiwan. Besides, even if by some miracle a manufacturer could be found, it would take eight years before the first submarine was delivered. But there is no good reason for rejecting the Patriot missiles. The 2004 referendum was merely a device by Mr Chen to increase the voter turnout and heighten his chance of winning re-election. An overwhelming majority of voters replied 'yes' when asked if they wanted a strong anti-missile defence system. But the proposal was not carried because turnout was less than the required 50 per cent. The KMT should not be using this to argue that the voters do not want the Patriot missiles. The KMT has been playing fast and loose with defence for too long. It cannot afford to score political points through risking the island's security. Hopefully, if the KMT returns to power in 2008, it will be more vigorous in pursing the goal of keeping Taiwan's militarily strong and able to withstand an enemy assault. The KMT is now trying to occupy the middle ground on arms procurement. It argues that it doesn't want to pay more than is necessary, though it does want Taiwan to maintain a credible defence. It has introduced a new slogan - 'walking on two legs'. According to Su Chi, a KMT legislator who used to be chairman of the cabinet-level Mainland Affairs Council, the party wants one leg to be a defence system based on a strong political and military relationship with the US. The other leg is good cross-strait relations, based on exchanges and dialogue with Beijing - as well as political assurance that Taiwan will not pursue legal independence. That is a sensible policy. Taiwan knows it cannot win an arms race with the mainland but, at the same time, it cannot risk its security by assuming that Beijing will not resort to the use of arms. So Taiwan will have to remain vigilant while doing everything possible to lower cross-strait tension - something that the Chen administration has failed miserably to do. Frank Ching is a Hong Kong-based writer and commentator. frank.ching@scmp.com
