Washington's top envoy to Taiwan warned the island last month that a huge arms package made available by the United States in 2001 might be taken off the table if Taipei continues to procrastinate. Stephen Young, director of the American Institute in Taiwan, urged that the island's legislature approve the budget to buy US weapons by the end of this autumn - to counter China's growing military build-up.
For the past five years, the Democratic Progressive Party of President Chen Shui-bian and the opposition-controlled legislature have been deadlocked over the issue. This month, however, the National Defence Committee of the Legislative Yuan finally agreed to allocate NT$37.06 million (HK$8.7 million) for a submarine feasibility study and NT$2.48 million for P-3C maritime patrol aircraft in the government's annual budget proposal for next year. But it blocked NT$4.2 million in 'procurement operation fees' for Patriot PAC-3 anti-missile systems.
Still, the US is apparently happy that there is finally movement on the defence budget, even though the package is likely to be severely whittled down.
Mr Young's remarks were directed at the opposition Kuomintang even more than at the ruling DPP. The KMT had opposed the arms bill's passage to deprive Mr Chen of any achievement for which he could take credit.
In recent months, however, with opinion surveys showing that KMT chairman Ma Ying-jeou will likely win the 2008 presidential election, the KMT has been trying to mend fences with the US. American officials were starting to wonder if the KMT felt it was more important to score political points against the DPP than to ensure that Taiwan strengthened its defences against mainland China.
The KMT favours only one of the package's three parts: the P-3C anti-submarine aircraft. It is doubtful about both the cost and the value of the eight diesel submarines proposed, and it argues that the PAC-3 missiles were vetoed in a 2004 referendum.
The submarine proposal is probably dead. Not only are the subs enormously expensive, but the US no longer makes diesel submarines, and no European country has agreed to produce them for Taiwan. Besides, even if by some miracle a manufacturer could be found, it would take eight years before the first submarine was delivered.