CHINA'S urban inflation rate for 1993 will be 19.5 per cent, with increases in the cost of living index in some major cities exceeding 25 per cent, according to the Government's State Statistical Bureau. The overall national increase will be 14.5 per cent, while the growth rate of money circulating in the economy is expected to be about 35 per cent, down from a record high of 54.1 per cent in June. Investment in fixed assets and foreign investment continued to surge ahead this year, increasing by 47 per cent and more than 100 per cent respectively, the bureau's spokesman Ye Zhen said at a press conference in Beijing yesterday. Despite the relatively high inflation and money supply figures, Mr Ye said there was little danger of the economy overheating next year. The excessively high growth recorded during the first half of 1993 had been largely reined in and although industrial growth, money supply and inflation had rebounded slightly in the past two months, Mr Ye said the Government still had the ability to control the economy. The increase in money supply and inflation this month was ''normal'', Mr Ye said, because of the need to secure agricultural purchases. But there were ''psychological'' factors involved, such as the panic buying which ensued prior to the introduction of new consumption taxes. China would achieve a growth rate of between nine and 10 per cent in 1994, down from 13 per cent this year, he said. The macro-economic controls put in place this year to cool the economy would remain in place for the long term, Mr Ye said, although the strength and direction of those controls would vary according to China's economic conditions. For example, Mr Ye said, it had been necessary to lift strict credit controls in August after many state-run enterprises complained of cash shortages, but this was still in line with the long-term goals of macro-economic control. ''New problems and new difficulties will arise during the development of the economy, so new measures will have to be adopted to regulate economic development. So, in this sense, macro-economic regulation is not a short-term but a long-term operation,'' he said. The Government will step up supervisory measures next year to ensure planned price reforms do not lead to an excessive increase in the cost of living. ''The basic policy of the Government is to maintain a balance between supply and demand and prevent the excessive growth of demand. ''A monitoring system will be established to check price fluctuations of basic household commodities and efforts will be made to strengthen agricultural production and ensure the supply of commodities,'' he said. The increase in consumer demand resulting from the rapid rise in urban incomes would be offset, to a certain extent, by reforms in the housing market, which would divert money away from consumer spending, he added. National urban income is expected to break through the 300 billion yuan (HK$402 billion) barrier this year, an increase in real terms of about 10 per cent above 1992. Rural incomes, however, are only expected to increase by two per cent in real terms this year. Mr Ye conceded that rural incomes were rising too slowly and that there was not enough investment in agriculture. There have been reports of grain shortages in many parts of the country and the Government has embarked on a major campaign to stem the rising tide of social unrest in rural areas. State-run enterprises, the backbone of the national economy, also had their share of problems this year, with losses totalling 29.2 billion yuan, a 20.1 per cent increase over 1992. Mr Ye said the proportion of state-run enterprises operating in the red increased to 37.3 per cent this year. Meanwhile, Beijing yesterday announced that price controls over electricity would be lifted and a ''rational'' fee system would be established within three years to help the industry keep pace with economic growth. Power Industry Minister Shi Dazhen said artificially low electricity prices set in 1976 had hampered the efficient operation of power plants and the development of the industry. Xinhua (the New China News Agency) reported yesterday that while some electricity-related prices had been raised this year, the small adjustment was far from adequate because inflation had pushed up the cost of fuels, materials and generators. ''A scientific and rational pricing system should be established within two to three years,'' Mr Shi said. Mr Shi said electricity production had fallen short of demand by 20 per cent, putting output this year at 815 kilowatt hours, 9.44 per cent more than in 1992. Production is forecast to rise by 11.2 per cent in 1994 to 890 kilowatt hours.