bodyType

customContents

entityId

entityUuid

articlePageQuery

filter

article

articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle

articleListArticle

articleSeoArticle

hooksArticleAcknowledgementGateOverlayArticle

hooksTrackPageViewArticle

hooksContentInterestArticle

articleLinkingDataContent

hooksAmpRedirectArticle

articleSchemaContent

liveArticle

advertZone

sentiment

contentLock

topics

types

sections

paywallTypes

createdDate

publishedDate

sponsorType

urlAlias

moreOnThisArticles

commentCount

authorLocations

authors

corrections

displaySlideShow

multimediaEmbed

printHeadline

seriesContainer

articleSpeeches

socialHeadline

headline

images

flag

firstTopic

glossary

flattenTypeIds

image

relatedLinks

relatedNewsletters

__typename

sponsor

pdfFiles

seriesReverseOrder

series

disableOffPlatformContent

published

updatedDate

summary

subHeadline

body

keywords

readingTime

customTimezone

liveContents

SCMP Reporter

THE massive bull run in Asian stock markets is expected to continue well into 1994, analysts say.

  From the revitalised Indonesian market to the year's top-performing Philippine exchange, brokers believe the region's positive economic outlook and influx of foreign funds will ensure 1994 turns out to be another good year.

  In the Philippines, for instance, brokers predict the market will test new heights in the coming months, buoyed by an improved economic performance.

  ''To quote from [Morgan Stanley analyst] Barton Biggs, we are optimum bullish on the Philippine economy,'' said Manila analyst Joey Salceda, referring to the ''maximum bullish'' comment made by Mr Biggs.

  For 1993, analysts attribute the Philippine bull run to a confluence of factors, including the economic reforms under President Fidel Ramos, the cutting of daily 10-hour blackouts, political stability, a string of major firms recently listed on the market, lower interest rates and the global focus on booming Asia.

  The Philippine market rose more than 150 per cent in 1993 and while no one is predicting a similar record in the coming 12 months, analysts have repeatedly revised their targets in recent weeks as prices have smashed through one resistance point after another.

  Francisco Liboro of Belson Securities said the market could have a rise of more than 50 per cent or even 100 per cent on a year-on-year basis in 1994, with infrastructure and utilities firms growing even faster.

  In Taiwan, where the index jumped 72.15 per cent, several brokers expected the rally to continue in the first few weeks of 1994, and some talked of the possibility of the index hitting 8,000 in the first half. With sentiment so bullish, a major correction might still be some way off.

  Ben Chen at Baring Securities estimated more than NT$200 billion of new funds would pour into the market in the first half of 1994 - $70 billion of foreign funds and the rest from local time deposits and bond investors.

  The Taiwanese market took off in the latter part of the year with the key index surging nearly 50 per cent between mid-September and the year's last trading day.

  Taiwan eased restrictions on foreign investment in the stock market in the autumn and overseas institutions have poured record amounts of money into Taipei shares in response.

  By the third week of December, foreign financial institutions had applied to invest more than US$5.1 billion in Taiwanese stock funds.

   About half of that had been brought in, according to the Securities and Exchange Commission.

  Lower interest rates in recent months have also accelerated a switch by local investors away from bank savings deposits to stocks in search of better returns.

  Australia was another market which surged on the back of improved economic prospects, with the All-Ordinaries rising 40 per cent on the year.

  Broker Eric Gale said the market was facing a flood of overseas orders and that last week was the most active week between Christmas and the New Year he had ever seen.

  Mr Gale said investors would also be watching for any signs of tightening in interest rates, a concern that is already affecting the stock market in the United States.

  ''All equity markets have been yield-driven this year,'' he said. ''We'll have to watch the interest-rate cycle more closely than we have in the past.''   If rates creep higher, that would make stock yields less attractive and could slow - but not stop - the rally in equities, he said.

  Singapore's bullish market, which rose nearly 60 per cent on the year, is also expected to continue to accelerate.

  Local investors played a big part in the market's surge, especially after the Government relaxed rules on the investment of citizens' mandatory retirement savings, freeing them up for a wider range of investments.

  ''The economic fundamentals are still very strong, and all the drivers are still there,'' said Merrily Chiam, research director at Nomura Research Institute. ''We will find an excuse [to go higher], and it will be the Chinese New Year.''   The market usually rises as the lunar new year approaches. Celebrations will begin on February 10 this year.

   Analysts say that while the New Year has a purely psychological effect on investor enthusiasm, Singaporeans also often receive bonuses around this time, and some of that money ends up in the stock market.

  Stocks also receive a boost at the start of the year as large institutional investors adjust their portfolios and invest new funds.

  ''We should be able to power onward for at least the next four weeks,'' said Tom Hester, an institutional dealer at Baring Securities.

  At the start of each of the past few years, institutional investors had allocated a greater percentage of their available cash to emerging markets such as Singapore, thereby increasing liquidity in the market, he said.

  In neighbouring Malaysia, analysts said the outlook remained bright despite the 98.04 per cent gain on the benchmark index.

  The market's continuing gains reflected underlying investor confidence in the robust economic growth in 1994, said analysts.

  And massive liquidity in Thailand is expected to fuel the market further. Despite having risen 88.36 per cent in 1993, analysts say the index is poised to challenge new heights.



Asian bulls tipped to run well into 1994