The battle for the Premiership's fourth Champions League slot is more intense than usual and tonight's fixtures could have a significant bearing on the issue.
Fourth-placed Bolton host Portsmouth (fifth), and Liverpool (sixth) travel to Tottenham (seventh). Both games are closely matched, but the home teams must fancy their chances.
Bolton have won 10 out of 14 home games against non-Big Four teams in 2006 and rate a decent chance against Portsmouth. The better bet, though, might be Tottenham at bigger odds against Liverpool. Spurs have a good home record against Liverpool (only one defeat in the last 10 in league and cup, with five wins and four draws) and rank third in the home table this season after a run of seven straight home wins.
Liverpool are still struggling on the road and rate as poor favourites. Blackburn, who inflicted another away defeat on Liverpool earlier this week, have a good chance of a follow-up home win against Middlesbrough. Blackburn's home form is not as good as last season's, but they remain a tough proposition against lower-ranking sides.
The top three - Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal - all should add three points to their totals, though there is no value in backing them. It would be better to consider West Ham and Aston Villa. The Hammers have a good chance at home to Manchester City, who were unimpressive in their victory at Sheffield United, while Villa rate well on the handicap at Charlton. Despite an eight-game winless run, Villa rate just the better bet of the pair.
There are some good bets in the English lower divisions too, starting with Colchester and Stoke in the Championship. These teams are probably the two most surprising promotion contenders and it is worth sticking with them while they are in such good form.
