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SCMP Reporter

ANALYSTS have predicted a volatile New Year awakening for the Hang Seng Index this week.

  Fund managers will be returning to their desks around the world today after their Christmas break and some may well decide on a new approach to the Hong Kong market for the new year.

  Many will be asking themselves how long Hong Kong's amazing bull run can go on.

  The index signed off at 11,888.39 points on Friday, up 2,763 points or more than 30 per cent since the beginning of the month and up more than 115 per cent over the year.

  Common sense says there must come a time when the market takes a breather and consolidates. Yet bullish talk still dominates.

  Brokers are now asking when rather than whether Hong Kong's blue-chip index will smash the 12,000 barrier.

  Most say sooner rather than later given Hong Kong's traditionally strong pre-Lunar New Year rally.

  Jardine Fleming Unit Trusts was so brave as to round off 1993 confidently predicting the Hang Seng Index may rise to 14,000 points before this year is out.

  The 1993 bull-run was fuelled largely by an influx of US, Japanese and, to a lesser extent, European funds.

  And traders say the flow of foreign funds into Hong Kong and Asian markets is unlikely to abate soon.

  ''There is still Hong Kong and China investment mania in the US,'' said SBCI Finance Asia associate director Philip Pritchard. ''Some of the American fund managers who have come through Hong Kong recently may take six to 12 months to get approvals from their trustees to put money in here.''   January futures wound up Friday at a 72-point premium to the spot index, suggesting further buying today, brokers say.

  In the spot market, however, the meagre gain on Friday of 11 points did not seem to indicate strong buying momentum, although the hefty half-day turnover of $7.15 billion was evidence of liquidity in the market.

  With the end of the Christmas holidays, Hong Kong can expect to see more investors coming back in to the market, adding to liquidity.

  This week we can expect to see the index wrestle for direction, trading anywhere between 10,000 and 12,500 points.

  Short-selling will begin in Hong Kong today and is expected to initially depress the market.

  However, buyers might come in as the week progressed and squeeze the short-sellers, said DBS Securities research director Percy Au Young.

  So far 76 firms have registered with the stock exchange as short-selling members.

  Among the major firms slated to participate are Jardine Fleming, Morgan Stanley, Nomura Securities, Salomon Brothers, Smith New Court Far East and SG Warburg.

  There will be 17 designated securities eligible for short-selling: Cheung Kong, China Light and Power, Hong Kong and China Gas, Wharf, HSBC, Hongkong Electric, Hong Kong Land, Hongkong Telecom, Hang Seng Bank, Henderson Land, Hutchison Whampoa, Jardine Matheson, Sun Hung Kai Properties, New World Development, Swire Pacific A, Wheelock and Hopewell.

    They all meet the requirements of having market capitalisation of $10 billion and a public float of $5 billion.

  The only stocks not eligible that meet these requirements are Jardine Strategic, CITIC Pacific, Cathay Pacific and Dairy Farm because they have yet to join the automated trading and order matching system (AMS).

  Short-selling will be restricted until the Legislative Council makes amendments to the Stamp Duty Ordinance, which limits the lending of stock to 14 days before stamp duty must be paid.

      Until this period is extended, short-selling will primarily be used for settlement purposes rather than hedging or arbitrage.



Volatile trading forecast