For more than a decade, unexpected developments in Taiwan's rapidly evolving democracy have driven cross-strait relations, surprising Washington and horrifying Beijing. Last year saw a return to this pattern after Beijing temporarily seized the initiative by passing its Anti-Secession Law in 2005.
Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian is likely to take another step towards formal independence this year by proposing a new constitution. Although it will never be passed by the opposition-controlled legislature, Beijing is deeply troubled by the implications of the constitution. And it is right to be worried. Taiwan's political evolution has been rapid, unpredictable and volatile. Ideas such as referendums have moved quickly from the pro-independence fringe into reality.
After years of political deadlock, Taiwanese voters are convinced that their system is broken. They tried to fix it by forcing through the passage of a constitutional amendment in 2005 to halve the size of the legislature at the end of this year. This radical change could create the conditions for a new constitution in a few years. If the reform does not end Taiwan's political feuding, fed-up voters may decide that the patient needs even stronger constitutional medicine.
In the short term, though, this reform is ushering in a 'warring states' period that will consume Taiwanese politics for the next year.
The island's legislators are fighting for their political lives. Meanwhile, the 'emperor' - Mr Chen - is trying to save himself from the scandals that are threatening to bring down his house even as the princelings in his Democratic Progressive Party fight to succeed him. It doesn't take a sage to predict that, in these circumstances, no new, major cross-strait policy initiatives will be forthcoming from Taipei this year.
The aftershocks of the Anti-Secession Law - which established mainland China's right to use military force against Taiwan - continued to rumble through cross-strait relations last year. Mr Chen responded to this ill-advised legislation by effectively abolishing the National Unification Commission. The commission was merely a symbolic relic of Taiwan's pretensions to govern the mainland as the Republic of China; yet its termination formally ended the last policy commitment to being part of China.
In his New Year address, Mr Chen disclosed further retaliation. Taipei had delayed for two years before finally, last year, allowing Taiwanese computer chip manufacturers to make more advanced chips on the mainland. The delay was to punish Beijing for the law, he said.