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Amy Chew

HOTELIERS are predicting a good year for the hotel industry, barring unforeseen political difficulties.

  With luxury hotels achieving near full occupancy during the past four months of the traditional peak season, the industry is optimistic that the same performance will be repeated this year.

  At the same time, a hotelier warned of the damaging effects of the territory's high inflation rate in the light of growing competition from regional destinations.

  Island Shangri-La general manager Giovanni Angelini said: ''In the short term, the local hotel industry will reflect the strong economic environment of Hong Kong.

  ''In the long term, however, the territory's high inflation rate and labour costs may affect our industry, especially when it is being compared with the region's other destinations.''   He expected hotels to achieve a year-round average occupancy in the high seventies, while capacity was anticipated during the traditional busy months of 1994.

  Hopes of a recovery in recession-hit Japan, the United States and Europe are expected to fuel higher arrivals from those countries.

  Arrivals from China are also expected to continue to grow. While Chinese visitors tend to stay at lower priced hotels, they contribute a lot to shopping receipts.

  Regent Hotel general manager Thomas Axmacher expects 1994 to be a great year if the industry continues with its current performance.

  ''For our hotel, the four months from September to December have been outstanding,'' Mr Axmacher said.

  Average room occupancy hovered around the nineties and the highest average room rate achieved was $2,300.

  The strong performance is expected to roll over to the early part of this year.

  Mr Axmacher expects his hotel to end 1993 with an average room occupancy of 79 per cent.

  ''For the new year, the industry's performance could return to the level of the 1980s where the average occupancy rate stood in the eighties with good room rates,'' he said.

  While hotels in Kowloon have performed well, Mr Axmacher said a lot of them had to work hard at attracting guests as they lost out to hotels on the island for much of the business initiated by the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre.

  ''There is no doubt that the business generated by the conferences held at the exhibition centre goes mostly to hotels on Hong Kong side.

  ''When people attend a conference, they like to stay close to its venue,'' he said.

  Apart from a growing rooms business, Mr Axmacher foresees banqueting and function room business growing as well.

  He expects more Japanese and US guests as their economies recover next year.

  At present, the Regent enjoys good business from Japanese, Singaporeans and Malaysians.

  DBS Securities analyst Brian Oung forecast a room rate growth of between 10 and 20 per cent for luxury hotels this year.

  For mid-range hotels, room rate growth was put at between 15 and 18 per cent.

  He said tariff B hotels were limited in the growth of room rates.

      ''They cannot put them too high because if they do, they will lose to their competitors in Southeast Asia,'' he said.

  ''The US market has never really declined. The increase we expect to see in their numbers is actually growth and not recovery,'' Mr Oung said.



HK industry bullish on occupancy