Developments in Taiwan are often unpredictable, and the past year has been no exception. Thus, a review of events on the island in 2006 may provide useful insights into the future course of cross-strait events.
Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian's popularity continued to wane, as numerous scandals were uncovered in the first family and the presidential office. Attacks escalated on Mr Chen from the opposition, and three recall votes were held in the legislature within six months.
Support for Mr Chen within his own party also flagged. In the summer, a group of scholars sympathetic to the Democratic Progressive Party circulated a petition urging Mr Chen to assume moral responsibility for Taiwan's democracy. In mid-November, two high-profile DPP legislators quit the party. But growing dissatisfaction with Mr Chen did not result in his removal.
DPP legislators chose not to put at risk their party's support for renomination by voting for the president's recall. Moreover, while they were angry with Mr Chen, they did not want to side with the opposition, which has doggedly sought to undermine the legitimacy of the DPP's mandate to rule.
Contrary to some expectations, widespread discontent with Mr Chen did not harm his party's performance in the mayoral and council elections last month. The results demonstrated that the DPP was a resilient party machine whose candidates and ideas still continued to attract significant voter support.
The Kuomintang has failed to capitalise on Mr Chen's quandary. Ma Ying-jeou, the party's likely nominee for president, is increasingly seen as indecisive and unprincipled. Mr Ma has yet to achieve unity in his own party, leading to doubts about his ability to bridge the ethnic divide as president.