Round one went to Alan Leong Kah-kit; that's what people are saying. Will Donald Tsang Yam-kuen level the score on Thursday? That's what people are now asking. Thursday is when the two candidates for chief executive face off again in their second televised debate.
Hongkongers know that even if Mr Tsang doesn't level the score, it won't affect the outcome of the March 25 election. There are only 800 voters, and most will cast their ballots for Mr Tsang - even if Mr Leong flattens him in the debate. But hundreds of thousands will stay at home to watch, anyway. A high audience rating is assured precisely because we all want to know if our chief executive, a seasoned bureaucrat, will again be pummelled by a political novice.
Ronny Tong Ka-wah, a fellow member of Mr Leong's Civic Party, believes his friend has become an overnight sensation. 'Alan is a changed man,' he told me. He did not disagree when I suggested that Mr Leong had failed miserably to excite people during the early part of his campaign. 'That was before the debate. Alan is so different now,' he declared.
Mr Leong did indeed surprise us. A lawyer-turned-politician saddled with a reputation as a candidate unable to inspire people, he entered the ring punching. He quickly earned the approval of spectators, who had expected an early knockout from Mr Tsang.
But don't put all your money on Mr Leong for round two. He no longer has the element of surprise, and his success means he re-enters the ring not as an underdog but as a contestant who has raised spectators' expectations. This takes some pressure off Mr Tsang but, make no mistake: another poor showing, and more people will ask why 800 voters are picking him on election day. That question makes Beijing sweat, because it strips away the pretence that this is a real election.
Mr Tsang's first-round bruises had much to do with underestimating his inexperienced opponent. Add stage fright and a fake smile to the mix, and you end up snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. But don't write off his ability to bounce back: Mr Tsang is not a stupid man. Unlike his predecessor, Tung Chee-hwa, he knows the value of learning from mistakes. His high public ratings show that the people believe he's a competent leader. My gut feeling tells me he now understands that, as chief executive, he must enter the ring as such - a statesman at ease with himself who knows how to use his vast knowledge of governance to go on the attack rather than let his opponent corner him into defending his record.
