The Hong Kong government will release a green paper on political reform in the coming months. It will be a high-stakes game for all parties concerned, as stated by Donald Tsang Yam-kuen in his chief executive election campaign last month.
The best scenario for Beijing is, naturally, gradual reform leading to universal suffrage. Direct election of the chief executive would show the city's political stability, the legitimacy of the Hong Kong government secured by democratic means, and the fulfilment of the pledges made in the Sino-British Joint Declaration and the Basic Law.
Rejection of the government's earlier reform package by the legislature was a setback, as it exposed the political divisions in the community. Obviously, there was no harmony. However, the central government still wants to retain political control, and Hong Kong is unlikely to enjoy genuine democracy by 2012.
Apparently, directly electing the chief executive is less complicated. To ensure Beijing retains ultimate control, there are two approaches. One is the direct election of the chief executive by universal suffrage, with the candidates being filtered to ensure they are acceptable to Beijing. The other approach is to elect a portion of the Election Committee members by universal suffrage; for example, 400 of them, like the present election of 400 district councillors. This lets people participate in the chief executive poll, while the establishment still holds a majority in the Election Committee.
After winning a high number of votes, Mr Tsang is eager to settle the political reform issue by getting a final package endorsed, reversing the earlier setback. Opinion polls can be manipulated by the government, which aims to secure 60 per cent of the community's support for the final proposal.
The administration is in a favourable position, as most Hong Kong people are not interested in the details of reform proposals, and they want progress, to avoid further political polarisation. This is why the earlier reform proposal won the support of a majority of Hongkongers, according to public opinion surveys. What the Tsang administration did not want to mention was that, over at least the past decade, polls had consistently revealed that 60 per cent of respondents wanted universal suffrage implemented as soon as possible.
