Ahead of the publication this summer of a green paper on political reform, pro-Beijing voices are trying to dampen any expectations provoked by the chief executive election in March between incumbent Donald Tsang Yam-kuen and his Civic Party rival Alan Leong Kah-kit.
That Mr Leong snared the 100 nominations from the Election Committee members needed to run apparently surprised Beijing, even if he had no chance of winning. Even though they couldn't vote, the public warmed to the spectacle and the chance to indulge in healthy discussions of candidates and policies. The televised candidates' debate in particular was a welcome taste of the possibilities of universal suffrage - the local desire for which has been recently acknowledged by both the central and Hong Kong governments.
Any residual goodwill, however, has not lasted long. Amid the clamour to contain hopes, warnings have been sounded in Beijing, where sources said this week that central government officials were now scrutinising nomination procedures for candidates in future chief executive polls. The issue has been couched in terms of avoiding a constitutional crisis whereby Hong Kong elected a candidate considered unacceptable by Beijing, which then refused to appoint him. It now seems clear that Mr Leong could have provoked such a reaction.
The central government's power of appointment is found in Article 45 of the Basic Law. Beijing has previously stated that this is substantive and not merely procedural. Article 45 also contains the requirement that candidates are selected in Hong Kong by a 'broadly based' nominating committee 'in accordance with democratic procedures'. The provision also states that the ultimate aim is the selection of the chief executive by universal suffrage. Plainly, that power of appointment is not a power of selection.
If it was lightly handled, tinkering with the nominating mechanism could be a pragmatic move to speed the introduction of universal suffrage, easing Beijing's fears of a political system vastly removed from its own Communist Party traditions.
The 'if' looms large, however. While it is natural to screen out extremist or frivolous candidates, it is all too easy to see any new mechanism degenerating into a Beijing beauty pageant, where only a narrow band of figures is ever likely to succeed. This would snuff out the spirit of universal suffrage even before Hong Kong people have had the chance to vote. It is hardly a recipe for ensuring Hong Kong will be served by the best and most popular leaders. With polls showing the majority of Hong Kong wants universal suffrage, such a move would risk considerable public backlash.