Beijing expects mainland imports to surpass US$1 trillion within three years, but analysts warn this would do little to slow the widening trade imbalance.
Ministry of Commerce spokesman Wang Xinpei said yesterday the mainland 'is actively seeking to expand imports, aiming to reach US$1 trillion by 2010'.
However, economists said that even by scrapping or reducing export tax rebates on thousands of goods and the appreciation of the yuan, the targeted growth in imports would not be enough to narrow the widening trade gap.
'Given the base difference, the mainland's imports need to have grown twice as fast as exports in recent years in order to narrow the surplus,' said Credit Suisse chief regional economist Dong Tao. 'We simply don't see this happening.'
Mr Tao said he was surprised by what he called the mainland's 'exploding trade surplus' in the first five months of this year, and predicted it would widen further.
He pointed to the latest level of the purchasing managers' index on new orders, which came down to 60.4 last month from 65 in April, even as exports continued to grow sharply.
