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Why bother to publish that report, plan for that bridge?

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Why you can trust SCMP

I would like you to join me in puzzlement at the first paragraph of a Morgan Stanley research report on a company called China Molybdenum, which landed on my desk the other day.

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I worked for Morgan Stanley once upon a time and saw research analysts in the New York office composing their reports as bullet points, which editors then rewrote as proper text. Thus, I can't say I was entirely surprised by this China Moly report. Nonetheless, it has its special distinction. Here goes:

'Initiating coverage with an Equal-weight rating and price target of HK$14.10 - i.e. a probability-weighted average of our base/bull/bear case scenarios (50%, 30%, and 20%, respectively). Our bull case reflects potential value from the company's M&A strategy, while our base case is derived using a target 2008e P/E of 17.0x (the mid-point of China Moly's H-share peer average and in line with its closest comp, Hunan Nonferrous, on consensus forecasts). We expect strong earnings growth in 2007-08 on the back of robust molybdenum demand, buoyant pricing and reduced mining costs. We assume coverage of China's Non-Ferrous Metals and Mining industry with an in-Line view.'

I think it a fair guess that 'Equal-weight rating' and 'in-Line view' mean that the analyst has no opinion at all on the merits of the stock. I am also led to think so because his price target of HK$14.10 a share is exactly the price at which the stock was trading in the market when he set that target.

This, of course, might lead you to ask why he bothered in the first place to write a 42-page report on the stock. Perhaps the bits that come between 'Equal-weight rating' and 'in-Line view' hold the answer to that question, but I can't tell you.

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Does anyone know of a translator who speaks the language of that paragraph?

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