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Sydney

No matter how he adds them up, the numbers look bad for John Howard. Australia's second-longest-serving prime minister is in danger of becoming the first to lose his parliamentary seat since 1929.

With his government seemingly headed for election defeat, opinion polls predict voters in his well-heeled Sydney electorate will deliver the ultimate humiliation.

The Battle of Bennelong was always going to be close after the revitalised opposition Labor Party jettisoned its star recruit into once rock-solid Liberal territory.

Maxine McKew, who swapped TV current affairs for a shot at political office, now intends to skewer the prime minister off screen after years of grilling him on camera.

Mr Howard has spent half of his 68 years  filling the seat that covers suburbs in the city's north-west, winning 13 straight electoral contests.

Today, constituents are confronted by two equally well-known faces; one experienced and reliable, the other fresh and glamorous.

Former Liberal Party president John Valder, who played a key role in his old friend's rise to power, feels change in the air.

'Maxine is an appealing, fresh face. She sparkles, doesn't she?' And the PM? 'People are very tired of John Howard's face, his voice and his words, which have really not altered over the years.'

Mr Valder's apparent betrayal is hardly surprising. Unhappy with the PM's stance on a range of issues, from Iraq to former  Guantanamo Bay detainee David Hicks, he orchestrated the 'Not Happy, John' campaign during the last federal poll in 2004.

His views are striking a chord. Earlier this month, leaked Liberal Party research showed many voters regarded Mr Howard as dishonest and old.

One of them is David Jiang, a grocery store owner who migrated from Shanghai 18 years ago.

'Howard is very tricky,' he says, blaming the PM for everything from lining fat cats' pockets to dismantling workers' rights.

Harry Tan disagrees. He came to Sydney from Borneo in 1989 and now runs a news agency.  'Howard is amazing,' says Harry. 'If you compare our economy to the rest of the world, it is the best, and everyone can live quite all right. People who are not happy with him don't understand what he's done.'

A large influx of mainly Asian migrants to the area in and around bustling Eastwood will play a key role in the election outcome. Internal Labor Party research suggests the new voters are more likely to vote for Ms McKew.

Boundary changes that favour blue collar over blue blood are also likely  to hurt the PM.

Faced with rising interest rates and falling house prices,  he faces the fight of his political life.  According to the latest opinion poll, Mr Howard is trailing by six points in Bennelong.

But Ms McKew continues to insist that actually getting the required 4 per cent swing on polling day will be a 'miracle of gigantic proportions'.

With the election predicted for  November,   one of Australia's most respected analysts insists Mr Howard knows deep down he will follow Stanley Bruce  into the history books.

'He's simply got to accept the fact that he is going to be the first prime minister since 1929 to lose his own seat,' Malcolm Mackerras said.



Howard faces an ignominious retirement at the hands of a star-struck electorate