A by-election on Hong Kong Island will become a highlight of local politics in coming months. That is the contest to fill the Legislative Council seat left vacant by the death of Ma Lik, chairman of the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong. The by-election is politically symbolic - an important race between the pan-democratic forces and the establishment. It will have a significant impact on the upcoming District Council elections and next year's Legco election.
The pro-government and conservative political forces, despite their different political considerations, have reached a consensus: they are expected to back former secretary for security Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee in the by-election, although she has not yet declared her candidacy. The Liberal Party has pledged to support any candidate fielded by the DAB. If the DAB doesn't field one, it will support Mrs Ip's bid. The DAB says it will support a like-minded candidate, who will probably be Mrs Ip.
The decision by the pro-government forces to support Mrs Ip is, in fact, the result of careful political calculations. Liberal Party vice-chairman Miriam Lau Kin-yee is known to have plans to contest direct Legco elections next year, when she is likely to compete against Mrs Ip. If the Liberals support Mrs Ip this time, they can feel free to compete directly against her next year.
The DAB may field party vice-chairman Ip Kwok-him, although his chances of winning are slim. By supporting Mrs Ip's bid, the DAB could display its loyalty to Beijing; she is believed to be the central government's favourite for the seat. That way, moreover, the party would not be duty-bound to support Mrs Ip at the expense of DAB legislator Choy So-yuk in next year's Legco poll.
The pan-democratic forces, however, have yet to present a united front. They have agreed to choose a by-election candidate through negotiations, but they've failed to convey to the public an important message - that they are fighting for democracy.
The purpose of their negotiations is to identify a pro- democratic candidate who has the biggest chance of winning; it is not about handing out favours or being fair. Now that the democrats have decided to choose a candidate through that process, they should come together and rally all democratic forces in order to increase the chance of winning.
Yet, Cyd Ho Sau-lan, democrat Kam Nai-wai and the League of Social Democrats have, one after the other, declared their intention to contest the by-election regardless of the negotiations among the pan-democratic forces. It's frustrating that these parties and individuals care more about their own interests than the political meaning of the race.
