According to the pan-democrats, or at least according to some of their most influential leaders, the by-election in December is a lot more than a contest for a Legislative Council seat. It's a 'showdown between democracy and anti-democracy', they declare. It will be a triumphant victory for democracy if their candidate wins. This declaration has both tactical and strategic significance. Tactically, the pan-democrats believe their best chance of winning the by-election lies in making democracy the central, if not the only, election issue. They believe the majority of Hongkongers want universal suffrage at the earliest possible date. This is exactly what the pan-democratic candidate will campaign for, while the candidate from the pro-Beijing, or pro-establishment, camp will not. If voters' top priority is universal suffrage, they will probably support the pan-democrat. There is also a strategic purpose in turning the by-election into a referendum on universal suffrage: it takes place at a critical time in Hong Kong's constitutional development process. At the end of the year, Beijing will be getting ready to examine Hongkongers' views collected in the green paper consultation exercise. If the by-election winner is the one championing universal suffrage in 2012, the pan-democrats will claim that the election result shows the people's desire for early democracy. All this is transparent: anyone in the pro-establishment camp can see it as clearly as the pan-democrats. The former could react in one of two different ways. First, it could try to play down the significance of the by-election as a popularity test of various political reform proposals. During election debates, its candidate could try to divert public attention away from constitutional issues and hope to gain credit on other, non-political, topics. Second, the pro-establishment camp might avoid a real fight with the pan-democrats by putting up a candidate who is not seen as truly representing the camp. If the candidate loses, the defeat could be ascribed to his or her personal inadequacies, and the price paid by the whole camp would be minimised. There may be people in the pro-establishment camp who would prefer this defeatist strategy: namely, those who believe the myth that a majority of Hongkongers will support those calling for democracy as soon as possible. If the pro-establishment camp adopted this strategy, it would help to perpetuate this myth. It would always be on the defensive in the debate on political reform, never able to capture the moral high ground so easily held by the pan-democrats. But even the pan-democrats themselves do not genuinely believe in the myth, despite what they say in public. They want former chief secretary Anson Chan Fang On-sang to run in the by-election as their candidate. That's because they believe (they say) that this is a battle they cannot afford to lose, and because they think Mrs Chan is the only candidate who can defeat Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee - who is expected to run with the support of Beijing loyalists. But this myth doesn't make sense. First, it assumes that an overwhelming majority of the voters will support the strongest pro-democracy candidate. Second, it assumes that Mrs Ip couldn't possibly be more pro-democracy than any pan-democrat - be it prospective candidates Kam Nai-wai or Wong Yuk-man. If that's true, why is it only Mrs Chan who can defeat Mrs Ip? Indeed, each one of those other prospective candidates has a better-recognised track record of fighting for democracy than Mrs Chan, whose genuineness in her support of democracy has often been questioned by the democrats themselves. The reality refutes the myth resoundingly. If Mrs Chan does not stand, no one from the pan-democratic camp can beat Mrs Ip - even though the pan-democrats keep reminding voters that supporting Mrs Ip amounts to voting against universal suffrage in 2012. In fact, the pan-democrats are relying on the personal charisma of Mrs Chan to win the election, not on voters' support for their political platform. Therefore, it would not be a sure win for the pan-democrats even if Mrs Chan represents them. It is foolish for the pro-establishment camp to be misled by a myth propagated by the pan-democrats - but which the pan-democrats themselves have little faith in. The pro-establishment camp should face this challenge head-on. Members should put up their best candidate (Mrs Ip would be a good choice), engage the pan-democrats in an honest and vigorous debate on Hong Kong's constitutional development, and win Hongkongers' hearts and minds. If the by-election is to be a referendum on political reform, then so be it: that can work both ways. Tsang Yok-sing is a directly elected legislator for Kowloon West
