Despite widespread agreement that Shinzo Abe should have resigned as Japanese prime minister after his party's rout in the July upper house election, his decision to quit still stunned many. That was especially because it came only two days after he had vowed to 'stake his job' on extending the Maritime Self-Defence Force's mandate to refuel vessels in the Indian Ocean.
While his resignation may end his political career, it is a brilliant tactical move: it robs the opposition Democratic Party of Japan of political momentum and gives the ruling Liberal Democratic Party a chance to reconnect with voters. Much depends on who the LDP picks to succeed Mr Abe: a party determined to reassure voters will opt for an older, known quantity, even though that may herald a return to the old LDP and a retreat from the dynamism of the Junichiro Koizumi years.
Traditionally, a Japanese prime minister would have resigned after his party took the beating the LDP received in the July vote. That Mr Abe didn't step down as expected was taken as proof that he truly had a 'tin ear' for politics. While he pledged to refocus his new administration, the daily drip of scandals that forced the resignation of ministers and other officials ended any hopes for a fresh start.
Ichiro Ozawa, president of the DPJ, has exploited every misstep to realise his goal of forcing the LDP from power. His brilliant electioneering (along with the government's blunders) produced the July victory. Mr Ozawa has vowed to fight the extension of the Anti-terrorism Special Measures Law - which permits the Marine Self-Defence Force to refuel vessels as part of the US 'war on terror'. So far, he has outfoxed the government.
Mr Abe's resignation changes the dynamic. Stepping down eliminates a lightning rod for criticism. Giving up the prime minister's office is the sort of sacrifice that Japanese expect from their leaders. It changes the focus of the political debate from Mr Abe to Mr Ozawa, who many believe is making a technical argument against a deployment that he would have supported under other circumstances. The marine force is refuelling ships from many countries, supporting a multinational force that is struggling to defeat the Taleban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, and making precisely the type of international contribution that Mr Ozawa fought hard for in the first Gulf war.
Mr Abe's resignation means that Mr Ozawa's arguments, rather than Mr Abe's behaviour, will be the focus of debate. Much will depend on who the LDP selects as the new prime minister; the vote is expected on September 23. The frontrunner is LDP secretary-general and former foreign minister Taro Aso, who is viewed as an experienced politician with the gravitas for the office. He also made several verbal gaffes while serving as foreign minister and his views on foreign policy are close to Mr Abe's, which may be too conservative for many Japanese.
If the LDP is looking for a figure that can reassure voters alarmed by Mr Abe's youth and outlook, then former chief cabinet secretary Yasuo Fukuda may get the nod.