Anson Chan Fang On-sang's long-awaited decision to contest the Legislative Council by-election has turned a new page in the history of Hong Kong's democratic development. The former chief secretary's willingness to commit herself to politics - for the sake of unifying the pan-democratic camp and various pro-democracy political forces - is laudable. The decision also gives her the status to engage properly in public debates on political issues. Yet commentaries on Mrs Chan's entry have altogether missed the real relevance of her move. They don't realise that her participation is only the most visible development. What really matters is the political driving force behind the scene. After retiring, Mrs Chan frequently levelled criticism openly at the administration. I advised her that, if she wanted to take part in politics properly, she should form her own party. Unfortunately, my sincere advice fell on deaf ears. So she was faced with the dilemma of either entering the fray or forever losing her special, accolade-winning status. December's by-election will almost certainly be a fight between Mrs Chan and former security chief Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee. The Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong supports Mrs Ip, but it has responded to Mrs Chan's candidacy by announcing that two of its members intend to run as well. This saves face for the DAB and creates an escape route for Mrs Ip should she decide not to run. Great changes are afoot in the political environment, both inside and outside the city. Even the dominant big-business consortiums that hold such sway in city life have been seriously considering supporting universal suffrage. Their ultimate aim: if not acquiring more economic benefits, then at least preventing any encroachment on their vested interests. The year 2012 will be crucial. First, Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen's term will be up. Even President Hu Jintao will be stepping down. Who, then, will be left to take charge of Hong Kong? Who will determine the future distribution of economic benefits? Before reunification, the city's business consortiums protected their interests by currying favour with the powers-that-be in the central government. But that's a highly risky tactic. Even former chief executive Tung Chee-hwa, who was handpicked by former president Jiang Zemin to be chief executive, ran into trouble with the way he favoured some consortiums, to the dismay of others. Then Beijing entrusted the top job to Mr Tsang, who owed his rise to his own capability and popular support. The consortiums, no longer able to maintain their clout by wooing Beijing, turned to wooing public opinion through control of the mass media. It's an open secret that Mrs Chan decided to contest the by-election at the behest of media magnate Jimmy Lai Chee-ying and veteran Democrat Martin Lee Chu-ming. Tycoon Richard Li Tzar-kai's full support has also been revealed by the media. Mrs Chan's participation is no longer just her own personal business. She wants to use her personal clout to facilitate a merger of the Democratic Party and Civic Party, to consolidate a strong, democratic political force that will pave the way for a future election under universal suffrage. So she can be expected to bow out upon a successful merger of the two parties, after making her name in the history books. Mrs Chan's participation will unleash the strongest possible political force - pulling together public opinion and pushing the democratic movement to new heights. There's no doubt that Mrs Chan will win the by-election. However, whether that means true victory for democracy is open for debate. Her candidacy will greatly diminish the by-election's symbolism as a quasi-referendum, because her prominence will make it difficult to tell whether her victory is an expression of support for democracy. If the pro-Beijing camp makes a surprise move by supporting an obscure candidate instead of Mrs Ip, the pan-democratic camp's plan will suffer yet another blow. Mrs Ip would be sacrificed in the process, but who would care? Albert Cheng King-hon is a directly elected legislator
