American pressure backfires in Taiwan
The Bush administration really should send someone to take a look at the Presidential Office in Taipei. Two giant billboards calling for Taiwan to be admitted to the United Nations, in Chinese and English, flank the entrance to the red brick, colonial-era building. At night, the central tower above the entrance is lit up with a red neon sign screaming the same message.
Make no mistake about it: Taipei is going to ignore US pressure and hold a referendum in March on joining the UN under the name 'Taiwan', to coincide with its presidential election. Over the past few weeks, senior Bush administration officials have made a series of unusually direct statements about Taiwan's status in response to the referendum plan.
First, US Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte said Washington opposed the UN referendum, seeing it as a step towards a formal declaration of independence. Then Dennis Wilder, the National Security Council's senior director for Asian affairs, shocked and angered the Taiwanese public by saying that Taiwan, or the Republic of China, is not a state. And Jim Jeffrey, the deputy national security adviser, said the US would try to exert its influence on Taiwan to stop the referendum.
But the US influence in Taipei is more limited than it thinks. There is simply too much at stake politically for President Chen Shui-bian and his Democratic Progressive Party to back down on the referendum. The party believes referendums make the Taiwanese people the final arbiters of any decision about the island's future status. In particular, the ruling party sees the right of referendum as an effective veto on unification even if the DPP loses power next March. They are probably correct, since well under 10 per cent of the Taiwanese public support unification.
For these reasons, the DPP doesn't really care what question is put to a referendum, as long as it passes. Everyone knows Taiwan has no hope of gaining entry to the UN under any name, but the proposition to do so enjoys nearly universal support on the island: Taiwanese feel strongly they should be allowed to join the UN, and deeply resent any outside attempt to prevent them from voicing that aspiration.
In the short term, the UN referendum issue has helped the DPP regain control of the public agenda, focusing the election campaign on the big issues of national identity and Taiwan's future status. The Kuomintang is vulnerable on those issues due to its commitment to closer relations with mainland China. Indeed, KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou, who has opposed referendums in the past, is now backing one on rejoining the UN, but not necessarily as 'Taiwan'.
By opposing the UN referendum, the Bush administration is helping to create the wave of nationalistic sentiment that the DPP's presidential candidate, Frank Hsieh Chang-ting, needs to have a chance of winning in March. Taiwanese nationalism is a potent, though generally passive, force in island politics. Voters become more likely to vote for the DPP if they feel the island is being threatened.
The US appears to be bullying the island. In turn, Mr Chen appears to be defending Taiwan and what most Taiwanese view as a legitimate aspiration - to be a normal part of the international community.
Michael Fahey is a Taipei-based political commentator
