I'm optimistic about tackling climate change through reducing our use of energy, and alternative energy technology. Taking a 'helicopter' view of the problem is a bit like examining the books of a company you are considering buying out. What do we look for? Inefficiencies, ways of making savings, increasing production and selling off underperforming assets.
The problem is politics - negotiating complex agreements that are real, not just ambitious press statements. That's especially difficult because many of the current ideas for handling climate change will hurt the poorest people in the poorest parts of the world.
Researchers at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia, have looked at the global cuts in greenhouse gas emissions proposed by Sir Nicholas Stern in his famous report for the British government last year. They predicted steep economic costs if such reductions were made: slashing economic growth in China by 15 per cent, India by 13 per cent, members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations by 12 per cent, and the United States by 4 per cent.
Many countries that have agreed to cut emissions have missed their targets, and some who haven't signed up are closer to the prescribed targets than their critics. Now we must find a way to encourage nations to meet targets - but in their own way.
As to the moral case, how moral is it for rich countries' consumers and businesses to enjoy the benefits that flow from dealing with low-production-cost countries - when that just amounts to exporting their pollution? A global carbon tax would help even out the burden among rich and poor, and carbon credits are a good idea. But they won't be easy to adopt. We will see this in 2012, when the Kyoto Protocol on climate change will have to be renegotiated.
History proves that only through pricing can people be forced to adopt effective alternatives. The only time the major economies have dramatically reduced their energy consumption was during the oil crisis of the mid-1970s, when oil prices soared. Within 20 years, energy use will double. Natural gas consumption will soar, giving impetus to the fascinating research on hydrogen fuel. But that will happen only if oil prices stay high. Only that price pain will lead to progress. Our future lies in the hydrogen economy, renewable energy sources, clean coal technologies and the next generation of safer, more acceptable nuclear options.