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Bosnia: a war with no end

LAST week a few old women armed with a couple of buckets of urine blocked the road to a British aid convoy in Bosnia.

With no powers of arrest and orders not to start any trouble, the troops stood powerless until they finally turned around and went back to base. On another day they spent hours negotiating with local Croat militia commanders in a bid to get supplies through to a Muslim enclave.

Finally receiving permission, they were then held back by a solitary Croat Catholic priest threatening to throw himself under the tracks of their Warrior armoured vehicles.

The impotence of Europe, indeed of the United States, NATO, the United Nations and whoever else one wishes to bring into the saga in resolving the Bosnian tragedy has been both pitiful and pathetic.

It may be that this spring the British, French, Canadians and others who make up the UN force in that troubled land will decide enough is enough and go home rather than suffer the prolonged humiliation of providing food for three warring sides who seem to have less intention of making peace by the day.

The debate in the past few days in the capitals of Europe has been whether or not to pull out. Every recent allied commander has left in disgust.

A new British overall commander of the UN forces, Lieutenant General Sir Michael Rose, took over this week, promising a firmer stance and a new style.

But with his hands tied by a divided and ineffective UN, only the foolish would place money on him doing a much better job than any of his predecessors.

Part of the problem has been that everyone has so far talked of peace without recognising the political dimensions of the war; hoping they will somehow disappear beneath the falling parachutes of emergency supplies.

The West's aim has been to reduce the fighting; the kind of philosophy which led to the arms embargo on the Bosnian Government.

The embargo also applied to Serbia but that much larger country already had the war factories, a standing army and easy illicit supplies across its border; denied to Bosnia itself.

Had the Bosnians been properly armed - and every Muslim country's statement that they would help in this area came to nothing - they might have forced Serbia into the same kind of pragmatic settlement they reached earlier with Croatia. But it was not tobe.

In Sarajevo, the idea that UN troops might withdraw has added to the gloom of the ordinary people. The arms embargo means many already feel they are just being kept alive for the ultimate slaughter, that the Serbs will be free to descend on the city like wolves picking off the remaining sheep.

The Muslim leaders believe it is all a ruse, a form of pressure on them to make them accede to unacceptable peace terms so that everyone can then go home.

Add to that the demands from the European Parliament that the peace envoy, Lord Owen, stand down, and the grotesque failings of European policy become even more manifest.

The sanctions on Serbia have succeeded in guaranteeing the survival of its Stalinist president. We have had the ridiculous threat of air strikes against the Serbs, uttered so many times but never acted on that it makes a mockery of NATO.

But to demand the removal of Lord Owen, whose thankless task it has been for the past 18 months to keep three sides talking verges on the unbelievable. Or does it? The moves against Lord Owen were initiated by Germany.

The Germans, who were in favour of arming the Bosnians but out-voted within the EC, believe Britain, and especially Foreign Secretary Douglas Hurd, has a secret agenda: to divide Bosnia between the Serbs and Croats as speedily as possible, to allow the Serbs to get away with their conquest and to use the UNPROFOR troops as hostages to ensure that there can never be any Western action against the Serbian aggressor.

They see Lord Owen as the dog barking to his Whitehall master Hurd's tune. When Lord Owen took up the role he seemed in favour of air strikes and of loosening the arms embargo argued for so forcibly by Douglas Hurd.

The Germans, who have taken in the largest number of refugees of any state - 300,000 so far - believe the dead hand of Mr Hurd on Lord Owen's shoulder stops anything positive being done.

The paradox is that Germany and other EC states who argue so forcibly for military intervention have no intention of getting involved themselves; they want someone else to do the dirty work.

In Bosnia itself Lord Owen is again regarded as the front man for the cynical and bungling EC policy which many feel has tied Bosnian hands behind their own backs.

So we are left with the situation where the British, arguably those the most manifestly opposed to military intervention, make up the biggest contingent actually in the field doing something. They will probably stay. The people will be fed, as will the citizen armies. The war will go on.

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