It is now a month since Myanmar's saffron revolution was crushed by the military. Officially, 10 demonstrators were killed in Yangon, but many believe the actual death toll to be far higher. In the outside world, initial reactions clearly articulated the horror felt. Even Asean leaders expressed their 'revulsion' at the killings. Today, however, no more than small steps have been taken to address the political crisis. At the UN on October 11, the Security Council issued its first ever formal statement on Myanmar, and Secretary General Ban Ki-moon quickly sent envoy Ibrahim Gambari back to the region. In the US and European Union, existing sanctions policies were tightened. In Asia, Japan cut aid and key figures urged Myanmar's junta to engage in dialogue with detained democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi and the wider opposition movement. However, these initiatives were little more than elaborate political theatre. The Security Council statement, while welcome, was largely vacuous. Tougher US and EU sanctions will have almost no effect on the junta. Asian leaders have so far failed to convince the generals to come to the negotiating table. For their part, the generals also put on something of a show for the outside world. They indicated a willingness to talk to Ms Suu Kyi, provided she renounce her support for sanctions. They also appointed a liaison person to deal with her and Dr Gambari. For their own people, they staged rallies of patriotic support in cities across the land. Behind the scenes, however, the real action was taking place during nighttime curfews in Yangon and Mandalay. In raids on houses and monasteries, activists were dragged away to detention centres for interrogation and beatings. Many monks were defrocked and sent back to their villages. To move beyond political theatre and tackle the intransigent military elite that governs Myanmar, Asian leaders must take advantage of Dr Gambari's regional tour to formulate proposals for change. The run-up to the 40th anniversary summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, scheduled for next month in Singapore, is a particularly important period for floating reform plans. One good idea put forward by Thailand is for multiparty talks based on the North Korean model. Alongside Myanmar, these would bring together Asean, China, India and the UN. Another idea by several world leaders is for a sizeable aid package tied to progress on national reconciliation and political reform. A further proposal that must be considered is an inward investment package designed to encourage businesses throughout Asia to invest responsibly in Myanmar. So far, global leaders have failed to develop a strategy for dealing with the military junta. At a time when possibilities still exist for meaningful change, they should move beyond established positions. Leaders need to think creatively about ways forward that have a realistic chance both of being implemented and of stimulating significant reform. Ian Holliday is dean of social sciences at the University of Hong Kong
