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Vietnam in diplomatic dance with North Korea

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The elegant French-era villa housing the North Korean embassy in Hanoi has long been one of the Vietnamese capital's more mysterious buildings. With wooden shutters pulled tight day and night, phones that ring off the hook and guards that shoo the curious away, it is hardly a welcoming presence.

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This weekend, however, it is different story. Lights are ablaze as Hanoi hosts North Korean Premier Kim Yong-il, a speedy follow-up trip to the mission to Pyongyang last week by Vietnam's top leader, Communist Party General Secretary Nong Duc Manh.

Fraternal relations between the two states - among the world's last remaining Communist nations - have never been particularly warm, so the sudden diplomatic tango is being closely watched across the region. Could it be North Korea's 'dear leader', Kim Jong-il, is eyeing Vietnam as a future model for any plans he may have for dragging his hermit state into the light?

It is an intriguing thought. When he made a surprise visit to Guangdong in 2005, there was considerable speculation that Beijing was determined to impress upon the leadership of the last Stalinist regime of the benefits of economic and social reform.

Vietnam offers a similar example, with some different wrinkles. Hanoi's reform process started later - and significantly, had to be accompanied by brisk diplomatic activity as the country emerged from years of post-war pariah status. As this column outlined last week, ties with its former enemy, the United States, were not normalised until 1995 - an event matched by rising foreign investment inflows and broader international engagement.

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Reform and economic openness have been a complex, sometimes glacial affair, with the Vietnamese leadership keen to develop and drag their nation out of poverty, yet determined to keep their grip on power and ease any social tensions.

Yet a decade or so on, growth has been humming along, major foreign investors are drooling over the prospects of Vietnam's young population and the party is trumpeting targets to eliminate poverty by next year.

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