At the end of his recent mission to Myanmar, UN special envoy Ibrahim Gambari finally registered some success by setting up fresh talks between the junta and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Now it is even rumoured that Ms Suu Kyi will be released from the house arrest that has trapped her for 12 of the past 18 years. Amid such positive signals, however, the world needs to recall how easily hope can be dashed in Myanmar and act accordingly.
When individuals around the globe recoiled in horror at the bloody military repression on the streets of Yangon in late September, they naturally looked to the UN for solutions. In an unprecedented move, the Security Council last month adopted a resolution deploring the use of violence against peaceful protesters and endorsing Mr Gambari's mediating mission.
Back in Myanmar, however, the junta defiantly asserted its determination not to bow to 'big-power bullies'. The message seemed clear: Leave us alone - we will handle this. Ongoing repression through night-time raids on homes and monasteries confirmed that the generals were determined to follow a path of entrenched military rule.
This reality cannot be overlooked. British Foreign Secretary David Miliband and French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner speak of using aid and investment as incentives for the generals to talk. Others turn to regional powers like China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to pull strings. But it still seems unlikely that the junta will genuinely embrace other agents of change. In its world view, the army is the sole and essential saviour of a fractious nation. Those who play politics in the wider society must be crushed. Myanmar's generals remain a long way from reaching out and truly working with such people. In this context, the outside world will have to work hard to secure lasting change.
First, pressure on the junta to talk must be sustained. When Asean leaders gather in Singapore next week, they must make this a top priority. Intensified pressure in bilateral, trilateral and multilateral forums is also urgently needed.
Second, key states should continue to develop targeted economic measures. One success, led by the US, is smart sanctions aimed at the generals, their family members and cronies. Loud squeals from tycoon Tay Za suggest they are starting to hurt.