Despite the fact that there has been a rise in both the number of candidates and registered voters for tomorrow's district council elections, the month-long campaign has been very dull. So, it remains to be seen whether, given the lukewarm mood, the voter turnout will be close to the 44 per cent achieved in the 2003 elections.
With next year's Legislative Council election looming, the turnout rate will serve as an indication of the strength of the pan-democratic camp compared to its pro-establishment rivals. If the rate is higher than that in 2003, the democrats could achieve a landslide victory next year. Conversely, a lower turnout would suggest that pro-establishment parties continue to have a strong foothold, especially in such an eventless political climate.
Moreover, this year's district council elections are vital for political parties. Given the likelihood of severe competition for Legco seats, the parties must secure their seats in the districts before they can mobilise votes for the city-wide election. This explains the incentive to put up more candidates for election in the districts: this year, a record 878 candidates are contesting 365 seats. Another 40 will be elected unopposed. That is 72 more candidates than in 2003, the previous highest total. That year, 73 candidates were returned unchallenged.
Yet, the lack of interest from the media and the public has posed a problem for political parties from both sides of the fence. With Hong Kong's economy booming, public grievances with the government have dissipated; many investors made huge profits when the Hang Seng Index topped 30,000 points.
And, with unemployment rates falling, there is no sign of divisive political debate. The effect of the proposed Article 23 national security legislation that injected a new zeal for voting in the 2003 elections has almost completely vanished. Although universal suffrage continues to be an important issue, debates on political reform have been overshadowed by the highly publicised campaigns of former chief secretary Anson Chan Fang On-sang and ex-security chief Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee, who are contesting next month's Legco by-election.
To be fair, the political parties have tried their best to overcome the lack of a clear focus for the district elections. The pan-democratic camp came up with a centralised platform to promote democracy, but this strategy did not attract much media interest. Candidates from the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong and the Liberal Party attempted to highlight bread-and-butter issues. But these appeals haven't been entirely successful, either.