After the pan-democratic camp was left badly bruised in the district council elections, it is hard to turn one's eyes away from the Legislative Council by-election, where the main rivals are Anson Chan Fang On-sang and Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee. The Hong Kong Island poll, on December 2, is now filled with both symbolic and substantive values for democrats. Thus, for them, it is vital that Mrs Chan wins.
Symbolically, the pro-democracy camp cannot afford to lose two elections in a row. Another crushing defeat would be a further blow to morale and would undermine its chances in next year's election for all of Legco.
Symbolic values aside, the by-election is also crucial for the democracy camp's long-term future. The danger, following the district council results, is that it could fall into disarray. Democrats badly need a strong and charismatic leader. If Mrs Chan is defeated in the by-election, one that many believe is her's to lose, then the democrats would lose a prospective saviour.
Remember the Article 45 Concern Group? When the Democratic Party no longer had its finger on the pulse of society, the group stepped in as the new engine of pro-democracy parties. Although the pan-democracy camp seemed to adopt a collective decision-making process afterwards, it became widely known that the group - which became the Civic Party - had replaced the Democratic Party as the flagship. It was only under the leadership of the Civic Party that the pro-democracy camp was able to rebuild its image and strategy. The participation of Alan Leong Kah-kit in the chief executive election exemplified the pan-democratic camp's renewed strength and unity.
If Mrs Chan were to win a landslide victory, she could certainly be seen as the pro-democracy camp's desperately needed glue and energiser. And, Mrs Chan and the democrats would seem to have little to worry about. There is likely to be a high turnout, as the battle between Mrs Chan and Mrs Ip takes centre stage. In previous elections, voters, especially among the middle class, have tended to exercise their power with the aim of neutralising 'bad influences'.
An unsatisfactory performance by the government and political pressure from Beijing, whether perceived or real, normally attract a higher turnout, and that benefits pro-democracy candidates. Conversely, a lack of controversy often leads to less motivation to go to the polls. Hence, the pro-establishment camp's triumph in the district council elections is likely to backfire on Mrs Ip, shattering her chances of success. After all, many middle-class voters reside on Hong Kong Island.