Impossible harmony
Before the 17th National Congress last month, a 'harmonious society' were the buzzwords in President Hu Jintao's administration. But the idea was more or less dropped at the meeting, in favour of 'the concept of scientific development'. Indeed, beneath such talk of a 'harmonious society' lie figures that show an average of 80,000 serious protests or riots on the mainland each year for the past five years or so. That is hardly a good barometer of social harmony. And the only way to ensure that these incidents didn't reach global TV screens was to place a tight muzzle on the media, and restrict the access of non-governmental organisations.
There is an old Zen saying that asks: if a tree falls in a forest, and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound? In the mainland's case, perhaps if top leaders do not talk about the population's rising frustration with local instances of injustice, extortion, corruption, land seizure, medical malpractice and environmental desecration, they can pretend they never happened. Then, everything will seem fine on the surface. But, cases abound where central authority no longer holds any sway.
There are five reasons to explain this. First, the mainland is witnessing a rapid and accelerating breakdown of control within its administrative system, across all sectors from product manufacturing to labour protection. Increasingly, the authority of the central government is unravelling. So, when Beijing makes promises about environmental or product-quality protection, it is well intended but, in reality, there is little that the top level can do to make these promises stick at the local level.
Second, regionalism has been strengthened due to the lack of a strong central government. Beijing has lost control primarily because of the success of its own reforms, such as the decentralisation of planning and budget control. Local governments are now responsible for their own funds, which come through taxation - and also from a host of extortion rackets.
Third, the first two conditions give rise to local mafia warlords whose power is derived from links with local business thugs, police (offering protection) and local officials. This is particularly so at the lower end of the administrative order, as family connections come into play. When such networks crystallise, there is almost nothing officials higher up can do. Local citizens either become part of the extortion rackets, and live in silent terror, or leave their communities, thus adding to the number of migrant workers.
Fourth, when local police link up with officials and businesses in a mafia-style triangle, where individuals stand to gain, there is no accountability, so police become the hired guns of government, which is supported by local business. Again, when family relations come into play, these trinities cannot be broken up by higher-up officials. Knowing this, local governments or the gang leaders become the supreme and independent local authority.
Fifth, health services are in freefall. The old provisions for workers provided a social safety net. But the reforms to 'commercialise' medical services, without privatising them entirely, have left most of the population without access to decent health care, and a system of corrupt doctors and hospitals only interested in selling - often fake - pharmaceuticals. As for pensions, at present there is not enough money in the system to guarantee retirement payments, which has helped to stimulate the current mania for money, grabbed whatever the social cost.
Thus, the Communist Party leadership probably realised the impossibility of achieving any kind of a 'harmonious society' in the near future. 'Scientific development', however, is possible as long as there are engineers and industrialists (at present, they comprise China's leadership) and the goal is to continue with high growth rates as the formula for maintaining the social status quo.
As stakeholders in the process, all foreign investors, investment bankers and well-to-do Americans - particularly those planning to attend the Beijing Olympics - should wish them luck.
Laurence Brahm is a political economist, author, filmmaker and founder of Shambhala Foundation
