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Kitty Hawk saga reveals weak links in Beijing's decision making and communication
The ongoing Kitty Hawk saga has raised more concerns about how well Beijing's decision-making and coordination mechanisms would react in a real crisis than it has about the prospects for Sino-US relations.
The latest twist in the week-long saga was another contradictory act from Beijing.
Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, in an obvious attempt to repair the diplomatic damage in his meeting with US President George W. Bush on Wednesday, blamed 'a misunderstanding' for Beijing's refusal to let the US Navy aircraft carrier make a port call in Hong Kong for a Thanksgiving visit.
But yesterday, Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao said the reports of what Mr Yang had said 'do not accord with the facts'.
A senior researcher at the National Strategic Research Centre of Shanghai Jiaotong University said: 'It shows Beijing has yet to work out a competent co-ordination system and its decision-making process unravels when faced with highly charged international incidents.'
Putting it all down to a 'misunderstanding' sounded too much like an apology to the US Navy, which would make hawkish military generals unhappy, said the researcher, who declined to be named.
Inconsistency, murkiness and confusion have characterised Beijing's actions since the first day  when the Foreign Ministry,  without any explanation, suddenly rejected the fleet's initial request for a port call on November 21. The move looked particularly amateurish given the fact that hundreds of sailors' families had flown to the city to spend the Thanksgiving holiday with their relatives.
Beijing's action also came  just weeks after a visit to China by US Defence Secretary Robert Gates that was described by both Chinese and US officials as positive.
Of deeper concern, according to top US Navy officials, was that China had also earlier denied access to Hong Kong to two smaller US Navy ships - the minesweepers USS Guardian and USS Patriot - which had been seeking refuge from an approaching storm.
Beijing later reversed its decision by giving the USS Kitty Hawk permission to go ahead with the port call, citing 'humanitarian considerations', but the carrier had already headed on to Japan.
Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell said the Chinese actions were beyond explanation because US naval vessels routinely visited Hong Kong.
'There is no indication at all prior to the Kitty Hawk being refused entry to the port of Hong Kong that there was any reason or any cause for concern,' Mr Morrell said.
There has been speculation that China's move to block the ships was related to irritation over a meeting between Mr Bush and exiled Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama, and  US plans to sell Taiwan an upgrade to its missile-defence system.
However, Shen Jiru , a researcher at the International Strategy Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,  said Beijing would have made it very clear if it was reacting to either of those issues.
China recently explained that its refusal to take part in a United Nations Security Council  meeting held in Berlin and a German-sponsored talk on Iran's nuclear issue was to protest against German Chancellor Angela Merkel's meeting with the Dalai Lama.
Tao Wenzhao ,  a senior international relations researcher at the academy,  said Beijing would have chosen to postpone Dr Gates' visit earlier this month - the first bilateral exchange after the meeting between Mr Bush and the Dalai Lama - if it had wanted to make a show of its displeasure.
While some of the older, senior members of the People's Liberation Army Navy might  be unhappy about the recent arms sale to Taiwan,  it was not substantially different from other sales in the past, Mr Shen said.
'The two militaries [the US and China] wouldn't want to rock the boat for such a [minor] incident,' he said.
Beijing has only closed the port to US warships in times of crisis in Sino-US relations, such as the US bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999 and  a collision between a US P-3 surveillance plane and a Chinese fighter in 2001.
The most likely answer was probably an anti-climactic one, Professor Tao said.
'Probably some navy general ordered it but he did not bother to brief civilian cadres until the very last minute,' he said.
The poor communication between military and civilian officials is well documented.
In January, the military shot down a weather satellite without informing  civilian leaders. A Foreign Ministry spokesman was caught off guard when asked about the issue at a press conference. The  ministry had probably not been informed about the decision this time either, Professor Tao said.
The incident would have little impact on long-term Sino-US ties but it further exposed weakness in the decision-making process which should set off alarms.
'It will probably go down as a freakish accident, which was an embarrassment for the Chinese and an irritation for the US,' Professor Tao said.
'And it will get people to question what it would be like in the event of real crisis.'



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Tibet

What would happen in a real crisis?