Thais look to king in times of unease
People hail 80-year-old monarch ahead of potentially uncertain election this month
The toast of 'long live the king' has been ringing out across Thailand and at celebrations across the region to mark the 80th birthday yesterday of King Bhumibol Adulyadej. This year the cry carries a particular resonance, coming after a bout of ill-health for the king and ahead of a potentially uncertain election later this month.
As a constitutional monarch, King Bhumibol reigns but cannot rule over a proudly free nation whose struggle for democracy has been marked by upheaval and military intervention. Yet his moral authority forged during 61 years on the throne - longer than any other reigning monarch - means ordinary Thais may again turn to him for guidance should upcoming elections threaten to worsen Thailand's political situation.
On December 23 Thais go to the polls to elect the first government since military leaders removed then prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in a bloodless coup in September 2006, prematurely ending his Thai Rak Thai Party's unprecedented two terms in office.
While the election fufils the junta's promise to return Thailand to democratic rule - the generals' coup, after all, was staged in the name of democracy - a range of insiders fear short-term instability surrounding the result.
King Bhumibol used his annual birthday address on Tuesday to stress his good health - he was recently hospitalised due to a lack of blood circulation to his brain - but also spoke of healing divisions.
'Whether soldiers or civilians, [we] must be united, like our legs that must be united - which means one goes forward and one pushes backward before moving forward,' he said. 'This way, we could walk without falling. Without unity, the country will face disaster.'
The election will be held under a new junta-drafted constitution geared to ensuring no future leader can forge a grip on power quite like Thaksin, a telecoms billionaire.
That means, however, a potential return to rule by shaky coalitions that once dominated the Thai political arena. Through the 1980s and 1990s, a succession of weak governments struggled to formulate firm policies to improve Thailand; their rule dominated by endless horse-trading and money-go-round backroom dealings.
Some of the most notorious deal-makers in Thai politics have emerged from the political wilderness in recent months, sensing the chance to grab a few votes and negotiate their way into partial power. Former prime minister Banharn Silpa-archa, 75, is already positioning himself to manoeuvre as head of his minor Thai Nation Party.
Those dealings could prove particular fraught this time as the junta prepares to leave the stage and influential sections of the Thai establishment are determined to keep Thaksin in exile, facing charges. Thaksin's followers have converged on two parties, the People's Power Party headed by right-wing veteran Samak Sundaravej, 72, and the Motherland Party of Suwit Khunkitti, 50.
The main anti-Thaksin grouping is the Democrat Party of Oxford-educated Abhisit Vejjajiva, one of the fiercest critics of the excesses of Thaksin's rule. Struggling to maintain early momentum, he faces a tough task in keeping the pro-Thaksin Mr Samak from heading a ruling coalition.
Riding above it all and not directly involved is King Bhumibol, who will have to sign off any future government as monarch. His role gives him the right to be consulted, to encourage and to warn. The respect and reverence that is part of the moral authority accorded him by ordinary Thais is difficult to overestimate; many ordinary Thais describe their king almost as a god-like figure in their lives. Some say they simply cannot imagine life without him.
