Mainland lenders may see their loan growth slow to 14 per cent next year from the current 15 per cent amid Beijing's tightening measures, according to a State Council researcher.
The People's Bank of China is expected to announce more credit-tightening measures next year, as Beijing announced earlier this month a 'tightened' stance in its monetary policy, switching from the 'prudent' approach for the first time in 10 years.
'Appropriate lending growth should be between 14 and 14.5 per cent.' Xia Bin, head of the State Council's Financial Research Institute, was quoted as saying in Shanghai Securities News yesterday.
Analysts expect even a slower rate than Mr Xia's projection. Bank of China International and Deutsche Bank expect 13.5 per cent and 13 per cent next year, respectively, while BNP Paribas' forecast is as low as 10 per cent.
'The loan growth target suggested by the State Council is manageable. Banks would be able to maintain earnings momentum under such guidance,' said Yuan Lin, analyst at Bank of China International.
The brokerage expects banks' profit to drop 2 per cent if loan growth slows to 13.5 per cent.
Ms Yuan added that the impact of the tightening credit measures would vary for different lenders.