US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice didn't go into much detail in her year-end message, but on one topic she was very clear: 'We think Taiwan's referendum to apply to the UN under the name Taiwan is a provocative policy,' she said. 'It unnecessarily raises tension in the Taiwan Strait, and it promises no real benefits for the people of Taiwan on the international stage.'
But, then, the referendum is not meant to benefit the people of Taiwan so much as the Democratic Progressive Party. The DPP, which draws its support mainly from those who would like Taiwan to be an entirely separate country from mainland China, has held the presidency for the past eight years. However, it won the 2004 election by a majority of only 0.22 per cent, and things look even grimmer for March's election, so it desperately needs a gimmick.
The referendum is the gimmick. The DPP has never dared to declare Taiwan's independence from the mainland, because Beijing vows to use 'non-peaceful measures' to thwart any attempt to divide the motherland.
So the DPP always looks for substitute gestures that will signal to its supporters it still means business. A referendum on changing the country's official name from the Republic of China to Taiwan, held at the same time as the election, might just work.
Well, not change the official name, exactly, because Beijing has already said that's a red line which Taipei must not cross.
Changing the name is not going to change Taiwan's reception at the UN, and the island's president, Chen Shui-bian, knows it very well. Taiwan lost its UN seat to the People's Republic of China in 1971, because the regime in Beijing ruled more than 98 per cent of the Chinese population. It still does, and few UN members are going to risk losing the trade of such a huge country just to make 22 million Taiwanese happy.
The Taiwanese government calculates it can get away with this stunt because Beijing is hosting the Olympics next summer, and wouldn't dream of spoiling the party by confronting Taiwan over a March 22 referendum on the (fake) name change.