This year will be crucial for Taiwan: parliamentary elections are due in less than two weeks, followed by a presidential election in March. The presidential vote will coincide with a hugely controversial referendum about applying to join the United Nations using the name Taiwan rather than the Republic of China.
Surveys show that the opposition Kuomintang is likely to increase its majority in the legislature. They also show that Ma Ying-jeou, the KMT presidential candidate, enjoys a comfortable lead over Frank Hsieh Chang-ting, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's candidate. But surveys are not votes.
If the KMT regains the political reins, it will be the second transfer of power between parties via the ballot box - showing the strength of Taiwan's democracy. More significantly, it will be a step back by Taiwan from the precipice of military confrontation with Beijing - one that could drag in the United States. Yet, even if the DPP loses control of the legislature but retains the presidency, tension across the Taiwan Strait will remain high since the DPP will continue to press for Taiwan's formal independence.
Fortunately, Mr Ma was found not guilty of corruption last week for the way he handled his special allowance fund when he was mayor of Taipei from 1998 to 2006. If convicted, he could have been barred from running. Still, the DPP is reportedly weighing other charges against Mr Ma, including investigating his behaviour in other offices before he became mayor.
His vice-presidential candidate, Vincent Siew Wan-chang, as well as former KMT chairman Lien Chan, have both been interviewed by prosecutors in connection with their past use of special allowance funds. They may be indicted, along with Vice-President Annette Lu Hsiu-lien.
The next president, whoever it is, must clarify whether these special funds are meant as subsidies for officials - thousands of whom receive them. But he will also have to confront far more difficult issues: chiefly, mending ties with the US, the guarantor of Taiwan's security. President Chen Shui-bian has succeeded in turning Taiwan's strongest supporter into its most severe critic by putting his own political interests ahead of Washington's security considerations. The next leader will need a more rational sense of priorities, doing what is necessary for Taiwan's security while not taking the US for granted. Domestically, the new leader will need to give more time and attention to strengthening the island's economic development and less to stirring up ethnic divisions for political purposes.
