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Democracy remains Pakistan's only hope

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The murder of more than 20 people, mostly policemen, last Thursday by a suicide bomber in relatively liberal Lahore, Pakistan's second-largest city, is a blow for hopes of better times after the general election on February 18.

This attack was the first in Lahore, possibly signalling a new front, and struck a courthouse. Judges and lawyers have spoken out against autocracy, and repeatedly challenged the regime last year.

The anonymous attack was similar in nature to the assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto two weeks earlier, and many other attacks which have occurred over the past few years, including an attempt to kill Bhutto last October in Karachi that left 136 dead. Given the tempo of these attacks, Pakistan already appears to be facing an undeclared, limited civil war.

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The violence comes at a time when Islamic militants - inspired by the Deobandi Sufi Islamic revivalist movement that favours a theocracy - feel their star is rising. Their advance is assisted by the influence of Deobandi clerics in some government and military circles.

Meanwhile, Pakistan's junta faces challenges, not only from the militants, but also from splits within the security forces and an angry public demanding democracy - even one dominated by political parties more notable for dishing out patronage instead of sound ideas and policies.

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Many pin their hopes on the election of an independently minded government that can rein in the military - which, with its business empire, has the trappings of a state within a state - and tackle the militant threat. Unfortunately, there is little to suggest an elected government will be effective.

Spectacularly corrupt and inept civilian governments, including that led by Bhutto, paved the way for those who favour autocracy, whether religious or military. Plundering and failed governments are an all-too-common consequence of politics dominated by parties standing not for ideas, but for patronage to fill the pockets of their elite benefactors while passing out crumbs to the faithful.

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