The headlines are filled with doom and gloom: a global recession looms because of the US subprime lending crisis, which is dragging down the US dollar, the American economy and the rest of the world. Throw in a good dose of inflation and collapsing stock markets, and the blues have come home to roost.
If ever there was proof that the rich world is self-centred, this is it. For the 1 billion people living in developed countries, the concern is relevant; for the other 5 billion, though, it is not.
Turn the tables and look at events from the point of view of China, India, Vietnam and the several dozen other countries that, in recent years, have been experiencing exceptional economic growth. With so many people being pulled out of poverty, times have never been so good.
Recession for these nations, comprising half the world's population, is not an issue. Domestic demand and consumption of self-produced goods have been well and truly kick-started, and markets for exports beyond the United States and Europe have been cultivated.
An economic downturn in the west will hit their exports. But as former chief economist with the World Bank, Homi Kharas, told me, the effect would, at worst, only slightly slow their push towards convergence with the developed world.
He estimated that, for each 1 per cent reduction in US growth, East Asian countries would experience a 0.5 per cent fall. With the worst projections for a US recession predicting a 2 per cent cut, China's growth rate would drop by just 1 per cent: negligible when double-digit figures are being posted.
Of course, there is also a sizeable chunk of the world - about 2 billion people in parts of Africa, the Middle East and Latin America - whose circumstances are not so good, regardless of a recession. For countries like Nigeria and Iran, war, politics, corruption or weather extremes have kept economies flat. Without significant change in those circumstances, a shift is not in the offing.
