How long will the American occupation of Iraq last? Friendly nations which expect it to pass with the Bush administration are in for a rude surprise. Democratic presidential candidate Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton figures at least through her first term, if she is elected; President George W. Bush says a decade or more.
Defence Secretary Robert Gates endorsed a 'long and enduring presence', pointing to Japan and South Korea, which have hosted US troops for more than 60 years, as models. Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Senator John McCain says US forces could stay for a century.
Indeed, the Bush administration is currently negotiating with Baghdad to maintain American forces in the country. 'The pact will cover the tasks of US troops in Iraq and their mission in the next phase,' said Hoshyar Zebari, Iraq's foreign minister. He insisted that a permanent occupation was a 'red line' that would not be crossed.
Really? The US retains substantial clout in Baghdad, since American rather than Iraqi security forces ensure the current regime's survival. And Mr Bush evidently initiated the war expecting to establish permanent bases in Iraq.
At least Senator Barack Obama opposed Mr Bush's misguided war policy from the start, but he would come under enormous pressure to be 'reasonable' and avoid a 'precipitous' troop withdrawal.
The Bush administration appears to be working to ensure that the US never leaves Iraq. For instance, Washington is constructing a mammoth new embassy, costing almost US$600 million. Moreover, it is pushing to include in its Iraq agreement the right to undertake combat operations while exempting US personnel, including civilian contractors, from Iraqi law.